| 摘要 |
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1. Purpose of the research
The Cancun agreement, adopted at the 16th session of the Climate conference in 2010, affirmed that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and that all Parties share a vision for long-term cooperative action in order to achieve the objective of the Convention under its Article 2. The Korean government declared 'low carbon green growth' as a new development vision for the next 60 years at 815 liberation day in 2008. The government also announced its intention to reduce voluntarily greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from BaU (business as usual) by 2020. Under this circumstance, this study aims to analyze and develop strategies for low carbon and green growth in the energy sector.
2. Contents
This study consists of following sectors. Firstly, we review the current status of the world green energy industries with specific emphasis on its implication on green growth. In addition, we discuss issues and current status of Korean green energy industries and issues of green technologies. Secondly, we conduct survey and analyze the results. This exercise surveys one thousand people nationwide to explore various aspects of people's attitudes and behaviors related to green growth. Thirdly, following the first year study, we enhance a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate the discussion in the literature on the induced technology change with the specific reference to the endogenous growth model. The main strength of the model is on its capability to endogenize the technological change and technological advancement enabled by R&D investment in the assessment of the macro economic effects of the greenhouse gas regulation.
3. Summary of the results
The survey on one thousand people's attitudes and behaviors related to green growth revealed many important issues. The main questions asked were on the recognition of green growth, belief and participation in green growth, motivation for and barrier to green practice and future intention to participate in the green growth movement.
More than half of the people(61%) recognized the term "green growth" and tended to believe the importance and effectiveness of green growth. Koreans were shown to support green growth more than the people of the 15 European countries did, when given the same set of the questions.
The important factors influencing attitude on green growth turned out to be age and gender. The older people tended more supportive of environment policies and green growth. Women placed more importance on green growth and are more concerned with environmental deterioration than men did.
On the other hand, the factors influencing green consumption were shown to be age, household income and environmental concern. The older, wealthy, and environmentally conscious people tended to consume more on green products. The factors influencing green practice were more diverse than those for green consumption. Woman, older age, belief in the effectiveness of green growth, experience in environmental problems, and concern with environmental deterioration worked toward green practice.
This indicates that there should be more emphasis on younger male in order to induce green practice and green consumption. Our survey also indicates that it would be more effective to take the cluster factor into account when designing campaign for green growth.
The analysis from the endogenous growth CGE model indicates the possibility that the GHG reduction might not introduce the net loss of economic growth when viewed in the dynamic perspective and coupled with the role of technology development. The technology change and technology advancement could be induced by the active government R&D investment. We analyzed two scenarios, high growth and low growth, on the GDP effects from the GHG reduction. The analysis showed that effects on GDP depend heavily on the magnitude and speed of technology development and deployment. The increase in R&D investment would reduce the costs of new technology, yielding decrease in GDP loss from the GHG reduction. As more new technology are deployed, it is quite possible to reverse the negative GDP impacts towards the GDP increase. This indicates the essential role of new technology development in the context of the green growth, which requires the joint attainment of the GHG reduction and GDP growth.
It should, however, be noted that the increased R&D investment may result in the reduction of R&D in other sectors, called the crowding out effects, in which case the positive impact of R&D increase on GDP would be lessened. In addition, resources for the R&D investment would come from carbon tax, in which case there might be the tax distortion effects. This indicates that the government need to economize the limited sources for R&D investment for the reduction of the GHG.
Language : Korean |
