| 摘要 | 1. Research Purpose
The paradigm in the global automobile market is rapidly shifting to eco-friendly vehicles as a result of the recent strengthening of international environmental regulations on automobile exhaust gases, increased possibility of depletion of crude oil, and continued high oil prices. Globally, greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector account for approximately 25% of the total. This is why a couple of developed countries are strengthening regulations and taking other measures to bring down greenhouse gas emissions in the automobile sector. Consumers are demonstrating greater interest and preference towards eco-friendly vehicles in tandem with increased burden from fuel expenses, a result of a rise in oil prices.
Leading regulatory policies that were introduced by countries in the automobile sector involve automakers�� average energy consumption efficiency (average fuel economy) and restrictions on average greenhouse gas emissions. The EU strengthened the average CO
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emission target for newly registered passenger cars to 130g/�� by 2015. In May 2010, the US improved the average fuel economy standard for newly registered passenger cars to 16.1��/l and the average CO
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emission standard to 140g/�� by 2016. In line with this global trend, Korean government officially announced, in June 2011, a policy that strengthens the average fuel economy target to 17.0��/l and the average CO
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emission target to 140g/�� by 2015 for newly sold passenger cars.
Such changes in the worldwide automobile market environment have made the development of ��green cars��, including electric vehicle, a major topic in the global automobile industry. Major developed countries have chosen green cars as a new growth driver for achieving ��green growth��. They are actively identifying what types of green cars are suitable for their respective conditions, developing relevant technologies, and providing subsidies and tax support. Against the backdrop of this global mega-trend, Korean government announced a ��green car development roadmap�� at the end of 2010. The roadmap includes the country's vision of becoming one of the world's four strongest players in green car technology by producing 1.2 million green cars by 2015. Also included is a plan to make investments worth 3.1 trillion won from 2011 through 2015.
What is needed to achieve this ambitious policy goal is investments for technology development as well as practical, effective dissemination policies for ��initial green car market�� creation. Since 2009, the government has been providing tax support of up to 3.1 million won for hybrid vehicles. It is providing a subsidy of up to 20 million won to public organizations that purchase electric vehicles. The government has drawn up plans to offer tax benefits of up to 4.2 million won to private consumers who purchase electric vehicles starting from 2012. To create the 'green car market', there is a need to evaluate relevant policies from the perspective of market acceptability and to give feedback on the evaluation results, thus promoting policy improvements.
The purpose of this research is to evaluate major policy instruments that are intended to build an initial market for eco-friendly vehicles. The major policy instruments that will be evaluated are tax support provided when vehicles are purchased, fuel economy improvements, and establishment of a battery charging infrastructure. The appropriateness of the present level of tax support provided will be evaluated first, followed by prioritization of major instruments from the perspective of policy effects. Based on analysis results, this research will suggest a policy direction and alternatives that can maximize policy effects.
2. Summary
This research adopted the conjoint method, which uses a structured survey form, and the random utility model, which is for estimating a consumers' indirect utility function. By adopting the abovementioned method and model, an estimation was made on the monetary value assigned by consumers to eco-friendly vehicles. The population of the survey carried out for application of the conjoint method was driver's license holders in the metropolitan area. A total 1,000 people were extracted as samples based on proportional assignment by region, gender, and age. To assess consumer preferences, an online survey was carried out by developing a survey program, while some face-to-face interviews were conducted.
Survey responses and such random utility models as the nested logit model were used to estimate consumers' indirect utility function. In addition, consumers' additional WTP (Willingness to Pay) was derived for main automobile attributes (fuel economy, car price, etc.). Analysis results indicate that consumers' additional WTP for automobile fuel is 3.74 million won for diesel, 5.33 million won for plug-in hybrid, and 5.07 million won for electricity. In other words, the respondents preferred diesel, plug-in hybrid (electricity and gasoline), and electric vehicles over gasoline-powered vehicles.
It was found that consumers preferred cars that offer a high level of fuel economy. Consumers were willing to pay an additional 780 thousand won to purchase a car if it meant higher fuel economy of 1��/l. In contrast, consumer preferences for cars dropped with longer time needed for refueling (charging), a rise in carbon emissions, and a rise in the annual automobile tax. WTP for an increase in refueling (charging) time by one minute was estimated at -160 thousand won. This signifies that the same utility level can be maintained only if there is a reduction in a car's price in case of a rise in the refueling (charging) time. If a car's carbon emissions level goes up by an additional 1g/��, the car's price should go down by approximately 28 thousand won. Consumers recognized the discharge of CO
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, a global warming gas, as actual costs. In addition, it was found that the same utility level can be maintained only if a car's price is reduced by 260 thousand won in case of a rise in the annual automobile tax by 10 thousand won.
WTP estimates for different automobile attributes were used to estimate consumers' monetary value for leading models of eco-friendly vehicles in comparison to a base model. The monetary value of the ��Sonata Hybrid�� against the ��Sonata 2.0��, the base model, was estimated at 5.33 million won. This means that consumers are willing to pay 5.33 million won more than what they would pay to purchase the base vehicle in order to purchase the ��Sonata Hybrid��. Based on the assumption that battery charging can be completed in 30 minutes, the relative value of the ��Chevrolet Volt��, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, compared to the base vehicle was estimated at 27.07 million won and that of the ��Nissan Leaf��, a electric vehicle, was estimated at 34.68 million won. In case of a charging time of an hour, which is 30 minutes longer, the relative value of the ��Chevrolet Volt�� was estimated at 22.35 million won and that of the ��Nissan Leaf�� was estimated at 29.96 million won, thus indicating a drop in the value of approximately 5 million won. In contrast, assuming that battery exchange can take place in just five minutes through a ��battery station��, the value of the ��Chevrolet Volt�� and ��Nissan Leaf�� was estimated at 31.01 million won and 38.62 million won, respectively. This translates into a rise in value of approximately 4 million won in comparison to fast charging of 30 minutes. The relative value of the ��Volkswagen Golf��, a clean diesel vehicle, was estimated at 7.09 million won.
A comparison was made between the acceptable price and the actual price of cars for each eco-friendly vehicle model in order to assess the appropriateness of tax support policies. In case of hybrid electric vehicle, the difference between the two prices was close to 0 at -370 thousand won. This leads to the conclusion that the amount of tax support provided for market dissemination of hybrid electric vehicles is at an appropriate level. This is confirmed by the fact that a total 5,479 units of the ��Sonata Hybrid�� and 3,986 units of Kia Motors' ��K5 Hybrid�� were sold from May through October in this year.
The acceptable price for the ��Nissan Leaf�� is around 60.56 million won, including the maximum tax support amount (4.2 million won). This is almost the same as the expected car price (60 million won). Considering consumers' additional WTP, the level of tax support provided by the government is not low and is appropriate for the dissemination of electric vehicles with such specifications as those of the ��Nissan Leaf��. However, this is based on the assumption that a trickle charging infrastructure is fully established. If the market price of the ��Chevrolet Volt��, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, is set at 60 million won, the difference between the acceptable price and the market price will reach –8.0 million won, indicating the need for additional support for the dissemination of the vehicle. However, there will be market acceptability if the market price of the ��Chevrolet Volt�� is close to 50 million won. This evaluation on the market acceptability of the ��Chevrolet Volt�� is valid only when a trickle charging infrastructure is fully established, as is the case with electric vehicles. The acceptable price for the ��Volkswagen Golf 2.0 TDI�� is around 33.5 million won, indicating a -3.5 million won difference from the market price. As such, consideration should be made for providing as much tax support for clean diesel vehicles as hybrid electric vehicles in the short term.
An evaluation of the priorities of major policy instruments for dissemination of eco-friendly vehicles indicates that fuel economy improvements have the greatest policy effects, followed by a reduction in the charging time.
3. Policy Implications
Tax support policies implemented in Korea for dissemination of hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles seem to be appropriate, but the level of support provided for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles should be strengthened to the level of electric vehicles rather than hybrid electric vehicles. A market acceptability evaluation of clean diesel vehicles shows that consumers want to be compensated for around 3.5 million won of the car price. As such, there is a need to consider the provision of tax benefits for clean diesel vehicles that are as large as benefits given for hybrid electric vehicles. The fuel economy of clean diesel vehicles is around 30% higher than that of gasoline-powered vehicles with the same engine displacement. They thus offer substantial energy-saving and greenhouse gas-reducing effects. They also satisfy strict exhaust gas standards, leading to greater national benefits compared to gasoline-powered vehicles.
An evaluation of major policy instruments indicated that fuel economy improvements have the biggest effect on the dissemination of eco-friendly vehicles. Fuel economy is an attribute that consumers consider most important when purchasing a passenger car. Fuel economy improvements are the most effective policy instrument for increasing market acceptability of eco-friendly vehicles. As such, a high policy priority should be placed on making fuel economy improvements.
It is important for the Korean government to induce automakers to develop more energy efficient vehicles by continually improving the ��corporate average fuel economy�� regime, which is planned for application in 2012. In addition to strengthening fuel economy standards for automobile makers and sellers, the government should devise measures that would enhance market acceptability of vehicles that offer an outstanding fuel economy by making such vehicles more attractive to consumers. As a measure, the adoption of an ��incentive system for vehicles with outstanding fuel economy�� is suggested. This involves choosing top ten models in terms of high fuel economy, from among passenger cars sold in Korea, every year and providing tax benefits to consumers who purchase any one of the models within a certain period. This would encourage automobile makers and sellers to make increased efforts towards improving fuel economy in order to increase the market share of their respective models.
The results of this research indicate that dissemination and commercialization of electric-powered vehicles will be difficult without the establishment of a charging infrastructure. It will be to impossible to commercialize electric-powered vehicles within the next five to ten years without strong policies for the establishment of a charging infrastructure.
The charging infrastructure should guarantee accessibility to charging facilities. In particular, an electric vehicle cannot be driven long distances with a single charge. This is why consumers should be able to easily use charging facilities. There is a need to set up charging stations at locations where there is a high volume of traffic, such as public parking lots and large commercial facilities, in addition to apartment complexes. Charging facilities should also be built at expressway rest areas to increase use of electric vehicles. ��Accessibility to charging facilities�� has meaning only when battery exchange and fast charging within 30 minutes is ensured. What would be most efficient is using the ��battery exchange system��. If the charging time is reduced to the level of gasoline refueling time by applying this method, the monetary value that consumers assign to electric-powered vehicles will go up around 4 million won compared to fast charging, resulting in a considerable rise in the dissemination of electric-powered vehicles. |
