| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
The paradigm in the global automobile market is shifting from internal combustion engine cars to electric vehicles. There are various causes, such as strengthened international environmental regulations on automotive exhaust gases, increased possibility of depletion of oil resources, and continually high oil prices. Advanced countries are demonstrating greater interest in Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). Electric vehicles are no longer a choice but a necessity. They are becoming key technologies that can completely change the flow in the international economic environment and automotive industry.
Increased dissemination of electric vehicles in the Korean market is expected to trigger changes in national energy supply and demand as well as the greenhouse gas emissions. Increased dissemination of hybrid cars would enable reduced consumption of oil without additional demand for electricity. However, further dissemination of electric vehicles, which require charging through a power grid, would lead to a rise in energy demand for power generation, although there would be a further drop in transportation fuel demand. It is said that the energy efficiency of electric vehicles is approximately four times higher than that of internal combustion engine cars. However, electric vehicles' influence on energy supply and demand as well as greenhouse gas emissions should be assessed based on primary energy supply. The key purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of dissemination of electric vehicles on Korea��s energy supply and demand and greenhouse gas emissions, to evaluate long-term stability in electricity supply and demand, and to suggest some policy instruments to lower electricity peak demand.
2. Summary
The first step of this research involved making a long-term forecast on the Korean passenger car market. A couple of studies that were previously conducted adopted a simple approach where the market share of electric vehicles was assumed. Rather than applying such an approach, this research employed an econometric approach to forecast the market share of electric vehicles by type and grade. Outlooks on the passenger car market was made by expanding and improving the transport sector model of KEEI-EGMS (KEEI Energy & Greenhouse Gas Modeling System). Forecasts on the passenger car market were made for three different scenarios. The first scenario, which is the base case, assumes that there will be no further dissemination of electric vehicles that require charging, such as EVs and PHEVs, and the relevant charging infrastructure despite government efforts. The second scenario assumes that all electric vehicles will soon be commercialized and released in the market. This scenario was broken down into two scenarios according to policies and the market. The number of newly registered vehicles and total registered vehicles was forecast for all types of passenger cars in accordance with the defined scenarios.
In Scenario II, the number of total registered electric vehicles in 2035 was forecast at around 7 million. The percentage of total registered vehicles accounted for by traditional internal-combustion engine cars is expected to drop from a whopping 99.8% in 2010 to 67.0% in 2035. The share of total registered vehicles taken up by EVs, PHEVs, and hybrid cars is expected to be 11.7%, 11.0%, 10.6%, respectively, in 2035. The three types of electric vehicles will likely record a similar dissemination rate. The percentage accounted for by diesel-powered passenger vehicles will likely indicate little change, from 21.2% in 2010 to 20.9% in 2035, attributable to high fuel efficiency of clean diesel vehicles.
The influence the dissemination of electric vehicles will have on energy consumption was examined assuming that Scenario II will become reality. Final energy demand will likely decrease 1.4% compared to the base case in 2035. The reduction in final energy demand will entirely take place in the transport sector. Transport energy (petroleum) demand is forecast to fall 8.8% compared to the base case in 2035. By final energy source, oil demand will likely decrease 4.3% but electricity demand will likely go up 1.5% compared to the base case in 2035. In terms of primary energy, it is expected that there will be primary energy-saving effects (1.36 million TOE) of 0.4% compared to the base case in 2035 according to Scenario II, where further dissemination of electric vehicles is assumed. The decrease rate of primary energy demand is lower than that of final energy because of a rise in the amount of energy conversion loss in the power generation sector, attributable to increased electricity demand. By primary energy source, it is forecast that oil demand will drop 4.2% compared to the base case in 2035, while demand for nuclear and coal, which is based-load power, will go up 3.2% and 1.7%, respectively.
Once dissemination of electric vehicles takes place, Korea's greenhouse gas emissions from energy combustion will likely go down. It is expected that there will be greenhouse gas emission reduction effects of approximately 1.1% compared to the base case in 2035. Greenhouse gas reduction effects will be greater than the decrease rate of primary energy demand (0.4%). This is attributable to a substantial drop in demand for oil, which emits a relatively large amount of greenhouse gases, and a rise in the amount of nuclear power generation, which does not discharge greenhouse gases.
3. Policy Implications
Research results indicate that electricity demand (sales) will not substantially rise (1.5%) compared to the base case, but that there will be a considerable increase in electricity peak demand, which is critical in the stability of electricity supply and demand. The outcome of analysis of Scenario II shows that the increase in peak load caused by electric vehicles will reach 13.9GW in 2035 if a smart grid is not used. As such, there is a need to come up with measures to stabilize electricity supply and demand in preparation for the rapid spread of EVs and PHEVs that will be enabled by rapid technological advancements and government support policies implemented in countries all across the globe. This is all the more important to Korea, a country that places the highest priority on stabilizing electricity supply and demand in the summer and winter every year due to a sharp rise in electricity demand.
What is important, first of all, is a policy that would distribute demand for charging electric vehicles so that it is not concentrated in peak load time in the summer and winter. One way would be to promote the 'battery exchange' business. In other words, there is a need to develop a business model where battery is charged in time zones when there is low electricity demand, and the battery is exchanged when there is charging demand. A longer-term approach would be to manage electricity load through a smart grid. Active use of a smart grid would mean that peak load would increase by a mere 4.1GW in 2035 even in case of Scenario II. This is approximately 10GW lower than the rise in the peak load (13.9GW) that is assumed when a smart grid is not used.
Dissemination of a great number of EVs and PHEVs in the near future seems difficult due to several reasons, including the absence of a charging infrastructure, limitations in battery technologies (performance), inconvenience caused by long charging hours and short driving distance, and high automobile prices. As such, there is a high possibility that hybrid vehicles will perform an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions for a considerable period. This implies that EV and battery technology development should be continually carried out, while focusing also on improving the performance of hybrid vehicles, which are a practical alternative. Moreover, international cooperation needs to be bolstered in the electric vehicle sector. Sharing electric vehicle technologies with advanced countries would enable earlier achievement of energy demand and greenhouse gas emission-reducing effects that are brought about by electric vehicles. |
