| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
In 2009, Korean government decided that it will cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% from the business as usual(BaU) scenario by 2020. Based on analysis of GHG reduction potentials by sector and industry, it also allocated reduction target by sector and industry to achieve the national GHG reduction goal. On the one hand, based on ｢Basic Act on Low Carbon Green Growth｣, GHG-Energy Target Management System(hereafter GETMS) has been launched in 2012. GETMS is a system in which the government imposes the reduction target for GHG emission as well as the energy use to designated entities (companies with GHG emission and energy consumption in large volumes respectively) and by which the government checks on and manages the achievements of those entities. The targets allocated to the entities for 2012 have been set by reflecting the mid-term targets imposed to sector and industry to achieve the national target. In addition, on May 2012, the national assembly passed the legislation on the so-called GHG emission trading scheme which is planned to be launched in January 2015.
One of the most import policy issues regarding implementation of GETMS and emission trading is the allocation of GHG emission reduction targets by sector and industry. In principle, the allocated target should comprehensively reflect various criteria such as economic efficiency, equity, political acceptability and so on. However, there still exists denunciation on propriety of GHG emission reduction targets allocated by the government to sector and industry. This allocation issue is also closely related to emission trading scheme.
Both GETMS and emission trading scheme, on the one hand, will be important and powerful policy tools for stabilization and reduction of GHG emissions and energy consumption of industrial sector in Korea. However, because of potential overlaps between two policy options, the direction of policy mix between those policies must be prepared to promote the complementary interaction between them. In addition, the detailed policy direction regarding linkage between these two polices and other energy policies such as RPS also must be developed for effective and efficient reduction of GHG emissions and energy consumption in Korea.
This report, therefore, analyses two important policy issues: (1) the appropriateness of the government allocated GHG reduction targets by sector and industry; (2) the linkage between GETMS, emission trading scheme and other energy policies.
2. Summary
Based on the review on previous studies and cases of other countries, this report emphasized that the allocation of GHG reduction target must reflect cost-effectiveness, equity, political acceptability and so on. In addition, the process of allocation of target is favorable to adopt the bottom-up approach. However, the top-down approach adopted by Korean government without release of detailed information on GHG reduction options and potentials causes the controversies on the appropriateness of allocation results.
This study developed KEEI-NCGE which is multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model and analyzed whether the GHG reduction targets allocated by Korean government on various sectors and industries are appropriate in terms of cost-effectiveness and equity. First, it found that total GHG emissions of Korea will be reduced by 24.2% in 2020 relative to BaU level, since sectors and industries reduce their GHG emissions according to the targets allocated by the government. Therefore, this study emphasized that the Korean government should update its forecasting on GHG emissions and reallocate the GHG emission reduction targets. In terms of cost-effectiveness, this study also argued that, to minimize the economic cost of GHG emission reduction in Korea, the targets allocated to transport, household, commercial and public sectors should be alleviated, while the target allocated to transformation sector should be strengthened from the original allocation result.
In terms of linkage between, GETMS, emission trading and other energy policies, this study suggested to maintain both GETMS and emission trading scheme even after 2015, but reorganize both policies to promote complementary interaction between two policies. The emission trading scheme may focus on large entities by setting GHG reduction caps, while GETMS is applied on small and medium entities with more financial and technical support from government. This study also analyzed the potentials of policy linkage between both GETMS and emission trading and other energy policies such as RPS, EERS and so on. To save the costs of GHG emission reduction and achieving the targets of RPS and EERS with lower costs, this study recommended for Korean government to allow the One-Way Linkge, approving the use of various credits generated from RPS and EERS through offset system in achieving the allocated targets and caps under GETMS and emission trading scheme. |
