| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Background and Issues
Year 2013 is important for the renewable energy sector, because the 4th National Renewable Energy Basic Plan of Korea is being formulated. One of the most important elements of the Plan is to set a level of the national deployment goal for renewable energy and it will determine the directions of future policy on renewable energy in Korea.
This study estimates the resources potentials of bioenergy and waste-to-energy and evaluate how much they would make a contribution to the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which is a sub policy instrument. Also, this study proposes the measures of securing them to support achievement of the power generation target of RPS. Currently, there exist renewable energy resource maps for each source. However, they are suitable for renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic and wind energy, whose total resource quantity remain relatively stable and almost unchanged, but not for bioenergy and waste-to-energy with a certain trend in resources, whose quantity depends on the activities or selection path of human being.
Therefore, this study prospects future resource potentials of bioenergy and waste-to-energy by reflecting the trend of the generation of each raw material and identifies the contribution potential of bioenergy and waste-to-energy in the power generation sector. It is expected that the result of this research would make a contribution to formulating the measures for maximum utilization of biomass to successfully settle the RPS and supporting utilities to achieve the generation obligation of renewable energy.
2. Research Results
This study forecasted the future resource potentials of bioenergy and waste-to-energy sources in each stage defined below, and used the result to assess how much they would contribute to achieving the generation obligation of the RPS scheme in the renewable energy generation sector by 2022. In terms of the raw materials of bioenergy, forestry biomass, livestock biomass, food waste, and sewage sludge were included. Waste-to-energy were evaluated in two categories, namely municipal solid waste and waste from the industrial sector. So, total six categories of biomass were included in the forecast.
When it came to resource potentials, four stages, such as theoretical resources, geographical resources, technical resources, and market resources, were defined and future resource potential in each stage was evaluated. Based on the characteristics and the past statistics of each raw material, suitable methodologies and forecast models by the items were developed. They included trend analysis, regression analysis, and intensity analysis. The power generation target of the RPS by 2022, which was given in the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply, was compared with the expected market resources.
It was expected that total theoretical resources of bioenergy and waste-to-energy sources would be 5,029 TWh in 2022. In addition, it was forecasted that total geographical resources, technical resources, and market resources would be 3,956 TWh, 721 TWh, and 20 TWh, respectively. The ratio of each stage against theoretical resources was 78.7% for geographical resources, 14.3% for technical resources, and 0.4% for market resources.
Next, with the assumption that the market resource potentials of bioenergy and waste-to-energy were all used for power generation, the degree of contribution that they would make to the power generation sector of renewable energy, the RPS, was evaluated. According to the result, by the year of 2022, the market resources of bioenergy was about 4.3 times larger than the bioenergy power generation target, 2,387 GWh. In addition, that of waste-to-energy was about 8.1 times bigger than the waste-to-energy generation target, 1,225 GWh. It was expected that, if all potentials of bioenergy and waste-to-energy were used, they would account for about 30% of total renewable energy generation target, 66,759 GWh, in 2022.
The result mentioned above, however, came from the analysis that did not consider the quantity of raw materials for feedstock that would be required for input in facilities already installed in heat sector. If the quantity were applied and resource potentials were adjusted, accordingly, then the contribution of bioenergy and waste-to-energy to the power generation sector, in terms of market resources, would decrease to 21%.
3. Policy Suggestions
According to the result of comparison between market resources and power generation targets, it was expected that the contribution of bioenergy and waste-to-energy to the RPS would be around 21% in 2022, and that their influence would be very limited. But, pay attention to the ratio of market resources against technical ones. It is about 1.3% for forestry sector and about 36.9% on average for rest sectors. That is, if appropriate policies are implemented and market conditions are improved, then it would be possible that market resources would increase, significantly, to a certain level. For that purpose, this study proposes several policy measures. First, the collection system for raw materials should be improved. Second, incentives to attract more utilization into energy from other uses should be implemented. Third, new biomass sources, such as energy crops, should be developed and deployed. Finally, R&D for development of the second generation biomass and its utilization technologies should be expanded. If necessary, the development and introduction of overseas biomass could supplement, in part, further utilization of bioenergy and waste-to-energy. On that purpose, this paper reviewed the current status and prospects of markets for internationally trade biomass products, such as agricultural biomass and wood pallet, in major countries in Asia and the America. |
