| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
As the public acceptability of nuclear energy has gotten worse since Fukushima nuclear accident, the anxiety of power supply and demand is growing in the medium to longer term. Given physical, technical, economical potential, it is true that the contribution of new renewable energy to the stability of energy supply and demand seems to be uncertain. Also, we should reduce the dependence on fossil fuel as the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions grows heavier both at home and abroad. Thus, we can't achieve the goal of stabilizing energy supply and demand, and coping with climate change by the current energy policy focused on supply.
Meanwhile, people's interest in domestic power supply and demand has increased since 9.15 Blackout in 2011. Especially, the fields such as the industrial sector that uses electric power most and the commercial sector that records the fastest increase of power consumption contribute to ��Electrification��.
Thus, power supply and demand management policy needs to be improved or established additionally to reduce an increase of power consumption in industrial sector. Besides, we should analyze the characteristic and problem of power consumption in industrial sector and establish the policy that considers the conditions of domestic industrial sector. Based on the current situation, this research is carried out to find the direction of effective power demand management policy in domestic industrial sector.
2. Summary
After looking into the present condition of domestic energy consumption, in chapter 2, we find that industrial sector accounts for about 53.2% of domestic power consumption. So, it is required to seek the systematic ways of power demand management in industrial sector. In the chapter 3, by conducting LMDI decomposition analysis to find the cause of the change of power and final energy consumption in industrial sector, we also found that the improvement of electricity intensity is insufficient, especially in manufacturing factor.
In the chapter 4, the result of analyzing Granger causality between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector, using error correction model, shows that there is a connection. In addition, the result of estimating the price elasticity of power demand, using AR(1) model, shows that the elasticity in the 17 types of industries has numerical value of –1 to 0 (-0.833~-0.180). That is, the price elasticity of power demand is inelastic.
After comprehensive review on policies and programs for power demand management program in Korea as well as major developed countries, including United States, Europe, and Japan, we also emphasized the development of complementary polices and programs to normalization of power prices for effective and efficient management of power demand. This study also analyzed the impacts of major power demand management policies and normalization of power price have on power consumption in industrial factor, by utilizing the computable general equilibrium(CGE) model.
3. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
First, the result of decomposition analysis shows that electricity intensity, especially in manufacturing sector, doesn't improve. Therefore, the power demand management policy, including normalization of power price, improvement of power efficiency, needs to be improved in manufacturing sector. Second, the result of analyzing the cause and effect relationship between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector reveals that there is a connection between two.
Third, after estimating the price elasticity of power demand, we can see that a ripple effect varies by industries. Thus, if electric charges for industrial sector rise, the rate of a decrease in power demand varies from industry to industry. Therefore, we need to establish an effective policy by setting the intensity of policy differently by industries. Finally, the result of analyzing CGE model reveals that although GHG-energy target management system isn't effective in terms of power demand management, the rise of electric charges seems to be effective. |
