| 来源类型 | Research papers
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| Energy & Industrial Sector’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy for Post-2012 Green Society(2nd year) |
| D. W. Roh
|
| 发表日期 | 2013-12-31
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| 出版年 | 2013
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
The former government was the global leader of low carbon and green growth policy. The command and control system to reduce GHG emission was started in 2012, and the GHG emission trading system will be introduced in 2015.
The green growth policy will be very effective policy to reduce GHG emission and increase the GDP simultaneously. However, the effectiveness of green growth policy needs a long-term investment and consistent policy. The evaluation of the green growth policy is necessary for the next steps green policy development in Korea.
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the green growth policies which former government initiated in a quantitative terms. The additive form of LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) and DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) are used in this study. The LMDI is used for the decomposition of GHG emission, and DEA is used for the green productivity change of industrial sector in 2004-2010 period.
The re-classification of industrial sectors from 9 sectors into 16 sectors has been done in order to keep the consistency between current climate change policies as command & control and the energy statistics. The study period is restricted to 2004-2010 due to the availability of data.
2. Summary
The green productivity of industrial sector improved in 2004-2010. The finding that the productivity in 2007-2010 is lower than the productivity in 2004-2007 means that the green growth policy was not effective in former government. This finding also means that the effectiveness of green growth policy needs more time.
The LMDI method finds that the main driver of GHG emission increase in industrial sector in 2004-2010 is production growth. Especially, the energy intensive industries as iron & steel, petrochemical, cement are the main industry for the GHG emission increase.
The finding that the activity structural effect was dominated both in pre-green growth period(2004-2007) and green growth period (2007-2010) means that the structural change toward low-carbon industry has been advanced in the study period(2004-2010).
The energy intensity effect contributed to the GHG emission decrease in 2004-2007, but it contributed to the GHG emission in 2007-2010. And the energy mix effect was the driver of GHG emission increase in both 2004-2007 and 2007-2010 period.
The emission factor effect contributed to the GHG emission decrease in 2004-2007, but it contributed to the GHG emission increase in 2007-2010 due to the emission factor increase in power sector.
As a result, the green growth policy of former government did not improve the green index in industrial sector since all of the effects which is related with the green growth policy as the energy intensity effect, the energy mix effect and the emission factor effect are deteriorated in 2007-2010.
In order to reduce GHG emission in the future, Korean government has to reinforce the green policy to increase the energy efficiency and renewable energy consumption and to change the energy mix in power sector. Also the government has to try to change the industrial structure into the low-carbon structure
3. Policy Suggestion
The green growth policy need a longer times to get the effect of policies. So the government has to invest in the green growth policy in a continuous and consistent manner. The government has to try to increase the energy efficiency of energy intensive industries as iron & steel, petrochemical, cement since the industries have the strong effect on the GHG emission increase. The investment in R&D for renewable technologies has to be continued.
The time period of 2004-2010 is too short to evaluate the green growth policy effect. The study for the evaluation of green growth policy would be carried out when the data is available. |
| URL | http://www.keei.re.kr/web_keei/en_publish.nsf/by_report_year/DD730C0EB02A6F2B49257C75003D2B28?OpenDocument
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| 来源智库 | Korea Energy Economics Institute (Republic of Korea)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/322790
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
D. W. Roh. Energy & Industrial Sector’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy for Post-2012 Green Society(2nd year). 2013.
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