| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
The purpose of this research is to derive a comprehensive oil security policy and measures. As a second year report for three- year series research project, a strategic oil reserve policy study is selected as a measure to enhance oil security.
Since international and domestic conditions have changed significantly, it is required to evaluate the current oil reserve policy and suggest future policy directions. The volatility of international oil price with historically high oil price threatens world oil security. However, domestic oil demand is expected to reach peak and expected to enter a saturated stage. Theses changing conditions may require the re-evaluation of the optimal level of strategic oil reserve in Korea.
In this context, the purpose of this research is to reassess the optimal level and efficient maintenance of national oil reserve.
2. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
The concept of ��oil crisis�� usually refers to the situation of rapid change of quantity and price of international oil market. In order to cope with oil crisis, Korea started to build strategic oil reserve since 1980. Through three government oil stockpiling plans, Korea build up 9 reserve facilities (total capacity 146 million barrel) and 106 million barrel crude oil and oil products (including International joint reserve) as of July 2014.
IEA emergency response system can be categorized four policy measures; stockdraw, demand restraint, fuel switching and production surge. Among these four measures, collective stockdraw is the most important and effective tool for IEA. Historically, the IEA has acted on three emergency situations to supply member countries stockpiled oil to the market through co-ordinated actions: in response to the January 1991 Gulf War, the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in September 2005, and the disruption of Libyan supplies in June 2011.
IEA collective response actions are intended to mitigate the negative effects of sudden oil supply shortages by supplying additional oil to the world market through a combination of emergency response measures, which include both increasing supply and reducing demand. Although supply shortages may result increasing oil prices, prices are not a trigger for a collective response action, as these can be caused by other factors and the goal of the collective action is to mitigate an actual oil shortage, not control or intervene to price formation. However, the actual effect of IEA coordinated stock release on oil price was not so significant and was temporary. So it was considered to provide a psychological safety-net rather than a effective remedy for oil crisis.
After reviewing IEA emergency response system, We reviewed the policy circumstances of stockpile policy of Korea. After completion of series of government stockpile plans, we are now in an different environment. Firstly, our oil demand shows a significantly moderated growth trend. According to the Second Energy Masterplan, oil demand is further expected to decline its share in the total primary energy supply. Our future oil demand will be from 105.1 million TOE in 2011 to 111.0 million TOE in 2025 and 107.1million TOE in 2030 and 101.5 million TOE(773.9 million barrel) The average annual growth rate of oil demand is expected to be minus 0.15% during 2011~2035. Thus, the oil dependence ratio will decline from 38.1% in 2011 to 26.9% in 2035. Secondly, the prospect of the availability of government budget for oil stockpile will be very uncertain. The construction of reserve facilities have already been completed and high oil price caused the delay of filling oil as planned. Considering the recent government budget situation, future allocation of government budget on oil stockpile is quite dubious. Lastly, Korea has been a member country of IEA since 2002 and IEA emergency preparedness system has been well working during collective action is needed. Since all member countries stocks are available to be drawn upon in an IEA co-ordinated action, each member country can benefit from the externality of collective action. Thus smaller amount of stockpile in each country can cope with the potential large supply disruption more effectively when compared with stand alone response system.
Considering this circumstantial changes, we evaluate korea optimal oil stockpile level. Theoretically, optimal level is determined when net present value of stockpile is maximized counting on its capital and maintenance costs and avoided GDP loss. US ORNL Disruption Risk model is used to estimate it. As a reference case, current level of net import days (124 day of net imports, 78.3 million barrel) will be maintained upto 40 years. As a result of model estimation, the reference case has a expected net present value of US 14.13 billion dollar (15 trillion Korean Won). However, the model estimated 109 days of net imports will be the optimal level. In terms of quantity, it is 68.8 Mil barrel as of now and 70.1 million barrel in 2025. In this optimal case, the net present value is increased to 14.17 billion dollar.
If we interpret this result simply, optimal level is 9.5 million barrel less of current level. Net present value of stockpile is maximized when we hold 68.8 million barrel. However, the results of the benefit assessment depend on a variety of underlying assumptions. Considering this uncertainty and sensitivity of the model, it is not desirable to decrease the current oil reserve immediately following our result. Many factors that influence the optimal stockpile level are likely to change over time. For example, although projections show decreasing oil demand, the level of demand depends on many factors, including economic growth rates, international oil price, policy choices related to renewable energy, and technology changes. Consequently, periodic reassessments of the oil reserve size in light of new information could be necessary and helpful for oil security. Our result that we are about 12% (15 days of net imports in therms of IEA standard) over-stockpiling can be reassessed in the continual periodic evaluation.
To improve the operation of strategic stockpiling, emergency stock release system should be well- prepared. In case of supply disruption or price hike, domestic emergency manual corresponding to IEA emergency mechanism should be in place and ready to be implemented to enhance national oil security. The test release and check-up of decision making process should be practiced periodically.
For cost effective operation and maintenance of stockpile system, following several policy suggestions can be made. First, acquiring a steady budget of oil purchase for the reserve for longer term, let say, over 5-years, rather than a steady volume for each year target system. It means providing KNOC with more flexibility in purchasing time of oil for its reserve. Second, appropriately adjusting refined products mix in the reserve responding to the changing domestic oil demand structure. Third, gradually refreshing crude oil mix responding to the lightening fuel oil demand and world oil market changes. Fourth, North East Asia Oil Hub Project and International Joint Stockpiling Business seem to contribute to enhancing national oil security in long term view. So the complementarity between these two project and government direct oil stockpiling policy should be maintained during their development.
Regarding trading business of oil reserve, more flexibility and larger playing room can be provided to increase its operation revenue. First relaxation of government guideline on oil trading and renting can be considered. Currently oil trading and renting are allowed within 15% of stock each under the guideline of MOTIE. This restriction can be softened by allowing KNOC can freely select the portfolio between two business within 30% limit overall. Second, relaxation of oil trading method can also be allowed. Currently oil trading method allowed is only no-risk-arbitration- trading. Grade Swap trading and Crack Spread trading can be allowed to KNOC with its discretion though these kind of trading involves risk.
Additionally, Issuing ABS(asset Based Security) and/or Oil Coupon can be recommended to facilitate private fund raising for the cost of oil stockpiling business. |
