| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
New and Renewable energy is emerging as an important alternative for energy security, climate change, new investment, job creation and future technology market while New and Renewable energy supply and the market is expanding. Solar, wind and biogas have shown a trend of rapid increase in the world renewable energy supply. The average annual growth rate has been 45.5% for solar, 22.9% for wind, 11.9% for biogas during the period of 1990
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2013.
Renewable energy industry has a forward and backward linkage effect (materials, components, manufacturing, construction, power generation, etc.) through which it contributes to the creation of value and jobs.
The rapid growth of domestic renewable energy industry is supported by effective policies in R&D, deployment, and industrialization of renewable technologies.
National renewable energy policy faces various challenges such as localization of core technology, efficient regulation and support, overseas expansion of domestic industries and so on. Therefore, the demand for information on renewable energy policies of foreign countries and market trends is increasing. The purpose of this study is to grasp the global trends of renewable market and policies so that implications may be drawn for the development of effective domestic policies.
This study reviews research materials published by overseas institutions such as IEA, Bloomberg and so on to give an analysis of overseas trends in the three focus sectors
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solar, wind and biofuels.
Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 deals with the current status and prospects for the global supply and demand of renewable energy. The third chapter gives a source-by-source review of the global renewable energy market, including solar, wind, bio, etc. Chapter 4 also gives a source-by-source review of the global investment on renewable energy. Chapter 5 addresses the renewable energy policies by sectors such as renewable power, renewable thermal energy and renewable transport fuel. Finally, Chapter 6 derives strategic implications based on findings from previous chapters.
2. Summary
While the share of fossil fuels among world primary energy supply is more than 80%, renewable energy accounted for only 13.2%. The regional share of world total renewable energy supply is non-OECD 74.5%, OECD 25.4%.
Renewable energy supply in the non-OECD region is mostly non-commercial conventional solid biofuels, while renewable energy supply in the OECD region is primarily modern renewable energy (such as solar, wind, tidal, renewable municipal waste, biogas, liquid biofuels), which accounts for 69.4%.
< World Renewable Energy Market >
A recent issue emerging in Europe is tax on private solar power which is especially controversial in Germany and Spain. Germany has imposed a tax on private solar power and Spain also submitted a private solar tax bill to Congress. Controversy over these policies has spread to other European countries as well.
China has supported the solar PV with the FIT (grid-connected) and the premium (non-grid-connected). However, due to system limitations, it is expected that China will strengthen the premium for non-grid- connected solar PV while reducing the FIT for grid-connected system.
In the United States, the incentives for the deployment of solar PV are being weakened. This Federal investment tax credit (ITC) benefit will be reduced after 2016. In addition, utility-scale power generation operators are imposing the transmission limit or grid fees on the households of private solar PV in opposition to the government��s introduction of Net-Metering.
On the other hand, the solar PV market is expected grow, with a focus on improving small-scale solar PVs. The size of the small-scale solar PV market in 2030 is estimated to grow 1.6 times compared to the large-scale solar PV market.
Global wind power capacity in 2030 is expected to increase to 1,319GW or more than four times of the level recorded in 2013 (319GW). While onshore wind technology is entering the mature stage, offshore wind may require subsidies by 2030 due to the high cost and low level of deployment.
New capacity of onshore wind power plants in China are expected to remain at the world's largest level by 2030. Offshore wind power is anticipated to have a comparative disadvantage in price competition until 2030, despite recent price drops.
World biofuel supply has increased 7% per year as a 116.6 billion liters, accounting for about 2.3% of the world's transport fuel in 2013. World ethanol production in 2013 increased by more than 5% per year as 87.2 billion liters, and biodiesel production has increased by 11% over the previous year as 26.3 billion liters.
United States and Brazil accounted for 87% of the world's total production of ethanol in 2013. Although ethanol production and margins record the highest level in the United States in the second quarter of 2014, Ethanol production margin is expected to decline from the third quarter of 2014 due to fall in ethanol prices.
< World Renewable Energy Investment >
Unit cost of solar power is expected to continue to decline due to increased installed capacity, improved manufacturing processes and reduced cost of production materials. Therefore, solar power subsidies are likely to cease after 2020. Cost of large-scale solar power plants are expected to decline by about 30% by 2030.
Price competitiveness of wind power generation is expected to be strengthened rapidly after 2025. However, offshore wind may continue require subsidies due to a lack of competitiveness compared to other technologies.
World biofuel investment in the second quarter of 2014 increased by 21% compared to the previous quarter. 53% of the total investment was invested in first-generation bio-ethanol and 46% in the next generation of bio-ethanol. The ethanol investment is 485 million dollars for the first-generation ethanol plant expansion (Asia) and ethanol gasification platform (USA), and biodiesel investment during the same period is 343 million dollars.
FIT support for large-scale solar power tends to be reduced or abolished due to restraints in both the budget and the transmission network. The countries corresponding to such a situation include Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, China, and Japan and so on.
On the other hand, FIT support for small-scale solar power, wind power and local components tends to be strengthened. The corresponding countries are Denmark, France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, China, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand.
The European Union (EU) assesses heating and cooling sectors to have great potential in reducing fossil fuel consumption (greenhouse gas emissions). As such, 28 EU Member States adopted target shares for the heating and cooling sectors of renewable heat energy. Globally, 41 countries have set targets for heating and cooling sectors and more than 19 countries conduct RHO (Renewable Heat Obligation) at national or local level.
Renewable Transport Fuel policy has mainly focused on biofuels production, campaign, use and so on. In recent years, it has shown a tendency to apply complex financial incentives and regulations. The related policy measures are biofuel production subsidy, biofuel blending obligations, tax reductions. The number of countries to enforce blending obligations are 33 as of the beginning of 2014, and some countries (Ukraine, Ecuador, Panama etc.) introduced them in 2013.
3. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
PV cost is expected to continue to decline due to increased installment capacity, improved manufacturing processes, and decrease in the costs of production materials. Thus, subsidies for PV are likely to end after 2020.
The competitive price of PV, therefore, is expected to be a more important factor for competition in the world market. Given such an environment, new policies for domestic industries to adapt themselves to these market conditions are needed.
Competitive bidding for renewable power sector is spreading around the Middle East, Africa, South America. To utilize these opportunities to participate in the bidding market, it is necessary to develop a new business model and strategy optimized to these specific regions.
The small-scale solar power is expected to become the central axis of the future PV market. Hence, domestic policies to maximize the benefits of technical competence are needed, especially in light of the increasing importance of developing localized solutions.
As the introduction of RHO is expected to spread over Europe, market opportunities of renewable heat technologies are expected to expand. RHO is to be introduced soon in the domestic market as well. Thus, Korea needs to establish technical and institutional infrastructure for RHO in advance. |
