| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Purpose of research
The full launch of development of unconventional gas that began mainly in North America between 2005 and 2010 is increasingly having an impact on the international energy market. In the US, where unconventional gas development is taking place most actively, the supply of natural gas is rising sharply, causing natural gas prices (Henry Hub price) in the US to plummet and hastening the replacement of other energy sources with gas. It is also having a considerable impact on the energy imports and exports of the US, and the changes in consumption, imports, and exports of each energy source in North America are significantly affecting the European energy market. In fact, these changes are forecast to go beyond Europe and have a great impact on Asia as well. They are, thus, even introduced as ��unconventional gas innovation��.
Unconventional gas innovation is more than simply impacting the natural gas market in that it is causing a great shock in the international energy market. However, there is an extreme shortage of reports on this subject. Research was fully launched just after 2010, mainly by leading international organizations. Among the research reports made are the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) by the International Energy Agency (IEA) under the OECD and the International Energy Outlook (IEO), issued by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Due to the lack of preceding research on unconventional gas development and its impact on international energy supply and demand, which is a subject that can be basically analyzed, most follow-up studies simply organize the outcomes of previous research on the influence of unconventional gas on the international energy market.
The WEO announces new forecasts every year that reflect actual records of the year of issue as well as major incidents and actual records related to the economy and energy supply and demand for the year of issue. Each forecast figure reflects views on the economy and energy supply and demand, and significantly changes depending on the basic tone of the forecast. The purpose of this report is to compare the announced forecasts based on the time series and to analyze changes, thereby identifying what is implied by time series forecast changes and creating secondary information. It also discovers relevant implications to present more original perspectives on the influence that unconventional gas development has on the international energy market. Also, an econometric analysis is carried out to determine what appropriate measures there are for each industry in Korea, in consideration of an empirical analysis on how the Korean market is impacted by unconventional gas�� influence on the international market.
2. Summary
This report first rearranges forecast materials issued by the IEA, an international organization, into time series materials and creates secondary materials to analyze the influence of unconventional gas on the international energy market, adopts an econometric analysis technique to prove the outcome, and analyzes relations among natural gas prices across regions. The results can be summarized into the following three:
First, it is forecast that the development of unconventional gas will not have a considerable impact on primary energy demand. The total amount of energy that is used globally remains steady, irrespective of unconventional gas development. This means that the effects of unconventional gas development are mainly indicated by replacement effects among energy sources.
Second, unconventional gas development is expected to lead to a drop in natural gas prices, mainly in North America and Europe. There should be a steady narrowing in the price gap with Asia as a result of rich supply. International natural gas demand is expected to rise sharply and contribute the most to a primary energy increase. Coal and oil demand should decline. In particular, the greater price competitiveness of natural gas is forecast to result in a substantial rise in demand for raw material use in the power generation industry.
Third, the impact of unconventional gas development should vary greatly across regions. North America will be directly impacted by unconventional gas development. There will likely be a surge in natural gas demand because of its price competitiveness. In China, the largest consumer of natural gas, relatively small natural gas consumption is forecast. There is also growing uncertainty over a rise in supply that would result from unconventional gas development because of technology issues. Japan and Korea, whose imports are mostly dependent on long-term contracts that are connected with oil prices, should experience extremely limited effects of unconventional gas development despite the rise in supply. However, the influence on each industry varies greatly, pointing to the need for in-depth research on the response strategy for each industry.
3. Policy proposal
This research suggests response measures for industries in Korea, with focus on industries that are expected to be directly and indirectly influenced by unconventional gas development. These industries are the petrochemical, steel, shipbuilding, and automotive industries. The petrochemical industry is expected to be affected most of all. The Korean petrochemical industry uses naphtha as raw material, and is thus suffering a drop in price competitiveness compared to petrochemical companies in other countries, which use natural gas. Unconventional gas development is, therefore, forecast to become a risk factor in the ethylene petrochemical product market, where natural gas is used as raw material for production. However, it can serve as an opportunity for non-ethylene petrochemicals, which can mostly be produced using naphtha. A reduction in naphtha prices can be anticipated with increased use of natural gas as raw material. This is why there is a need for a strategy to focus on the high added-value BTX-based non-ethylene petrochemical product market. The impact of unconventional gas development is already revealing itself significantly in the international steel industry. It is reflected in changes in the steel manufacturing process as an outcome of increased supply of affordable gas as well as a rise in steel demand in the industrial sector with the expansion of shale gas exploration and production (E&P). However, its influence on the Korean steel industry remains insignificant. There is still a need to develop domestic technologies that enable the replacement of coal with natural gas in product processes in consideration of the drop in international natural gas prices that will be triggered by unconventional gas in the mid- to long-term. There is an especially great need to develop steel materials that can be used to mine, transport, and store unconventional gas and that have adequate strength, corrosion resistance, and toughness to satisfy the particular product safety standards of North America. For the shipbuilding industry, unconventional gas development is forecast to offer various opportunities. Development of unconventional gas and the resulting increase in supply will lead to increased trade in natural gas among different regions. This is expected to result in a rise in orders for LNG vessels and FSRU, which is a type of offshore plant with facilities that enable marine regasification of LNG. There will also likely be an increase in demand for vessels that are powered by LNG, which is more affordable than petroleum products. |
