| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Background and Purpose
On December 18, 2015, the US Senate and the US House of Representatives passed a provision as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2016 to remove restrictions on US crude oil exports. Later that same day, the provision was signed into effect by US President Barack Obama. In effect, the provision lifted the embargo on US crude oil that had been in place since 1975 and allowed for the supply of US crude oil to the international oil market without institutional constraints beginning in 2016. About 11 months later, on November 8, 2016, Donald Trump, the presidential candidate of the US Republican Party, was elected as the 45th President of the US. Expectations are increasing in the oil industry that the coming Trump Administration, which will lead state affairs for the next four years (eight years if Trump is reelected),will open a new chapter in the US oil industry.
The domestic oil industry of Korea, which, in effect, imports almost 100% of its crude oil from other countries (with the exception of a small amount of condensate produced each year in the gas fields of the East Sea), is constantly on high alert for any changes in the international oil market and US oil industry trends, the latter of which can substantially affect the international oil market. Following a public hearing of the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in January 2014 in which controversy brewed over the lifting of US crude oil export regulations, leaders in the domestic oil industry began speculating in earnest whether the US crude oil embargo would end and, if so, how it would impact the international oil market. Many were particularly interested in the possibility of introducing US crude oil in Korea pending the removal of regulations.
Korea��s sensitivity to changes in overseas oil markets is largely due to the fact that its domestic oil industry relies so heavily on overseas oil exports. Korea imports almost all of its crude oil from other countries and relies heavily on condensate; this is even more concerning considering the fact that 72% of its condensate (as of 2014) comes from a single country in the Middle East—Qatar. Korea��s interest in US crude oil as a new source of oil imports has been high as the country continues to seek a more secure supply of oil, overcome its disadvantages in the industry, and heighten its negotiating power for oil introduction
In order to promote the domestic oil industry, it is necessary to continually monitor the repercussions of the lifting of the US oil embargo and identify any future impact these changes may have on the domestic oil industry. This study reviews the trends of the US oil industry from the initiation of US crude oil export regulations to the lifting of said regulations on December 18, 2015. This study then uses these trends as a basis to present a forecast of US crude oil export trends following the lifting of regulations. Furthermore, this study uses projections of how the lifting of US crude oil export regulations will affect the domestic oil industry to propose ways in which US crude oil imports can directly and indirectly be introduced in Korea.
2. Summary and Policy Implication
During the time when the lifting of regulations on US crude oil imports was still up for debate, many predicted that if restrictions on US crude oil exports were lifted that it would ease the oversupply of low sulfur light sweet crude oil in the US, thereby driving up the price of US crude oil (WTI) and crude oil production in the US, which would then ultimately put pressure on global crude oil prices (Brent). These predictions proved to be right up until the first half of 2014. However, in July 2014, when controversy increased regarding the lifting of restrictions on US crude oil exports, global crude oil prices plummeted to half their previous levels. Following this initial decline, oil prices still remain bearish (as of the latter part of 2016).
Since 2011, the increased production of light tight oil (LTO) in the US has played a large role in driving down global crude oil prices. Even when the now-lifted export regulations were still in place, the oversupply of low sulfur light sweet crude oil in the US affected global oil markets by the way of reducing oil imports. Even before US crude oil regulations were lifted, the Brent-WTI price spread narrowed to a level of below 5~6/B$6/B, thwarting large-scale, long-term oil exports and long-distance oil exports to East Asia. Currently, small-scale oil transactions, mostly short-term spot transactions based on supplementary export strategies—such as employing different shipping options (e.g. back-haul) and small-scale ��test cargo��—are being made with countries on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in Latin America and those on the coast of the North Atlantic.
The aforementioned factors have had the combined effect of impeding the introduction of US crude oil to Korea. From September 2014 to September 2105 (when US crude oil regulations were lifted), Korea introduced a total of 2.73 million barrels of crude oil to the nation from the US; however, no crude oil was imported to Korea from the US following the lifting of regulations. More recently, GS Caltex has agreed to introduce 1 million barrels of US Eagle Ford crude oil in Korea in November 2016, but it remains to be seen whether this transaction will actually take place.
Korea��s low import of US crude oil can be attributed to low oil price trends. If oil prices remain low for the foreseeable future, the US��s supply of crude oil to the international oil market will be limited, and the introduction of US crude oil to Korea will be even more unlikely.
Despite these downward trends, the US election results on November 8, 2016 have heightened the possibility of overcoming these obstacles to resume the introduction of US crude oil in Korea. The Trump Administration, which is believed to be relatively friendly to the oil industry compared to the Obama Administration (an administration that put a damper on oil production in the US with increased environmental regulations), could enhance the US��s crude oil production capacity as well as its potential exports. In light of this, it is necessary to make concerted efforts to closely monitor the status of the US oil industry and determine the proper timing of reintroducing US crude oil to Korea.
Lastly, the issue of the introduction of US crude oil in Korea affects more than just the nation��s oil refiners. The Trump Administration is expected to increase trade pressure on Korea to narrow the US��s trade deficit with Korea. As such, it is important to actively review the prerequisites and consequences of introducing US crude oil in Korea in order to be prepared to respond to any calls to action by the US. The introduction of US crude oil in Korea should also be continuously reviewed in an attempt to solidify the political alliance between Korea and the US, an alliance that must be reestablished in terms of the reallocation of defense costs.
This study presents the following policy proposals for the active promotion of introducing US crude oil in Korea.
(A) Attract US crude oil to the commercial storage facilities of the Northeast Asia Oil Hub Project
One way for Korea to effectively introduce US crude oil to the nation is to attract US crude oil to commercial storage facilities that will soon be built as part of the Northeast Asia Oil Hub Project (NAOHP). The NAOHP, which has been underway since 2010 as part of other national projects, has progressed with the construction of three large-scale storage facility bases: one in Yeosu (8.2 million barrels), one in the North Harbor of Ulsan (9.9 million barrels), and one in the South Harbor of Ulsan (18.5 million barrels). Domestic oil refiners are experiencing short-term spot demands for crude oil due to uncertainties over operational decision-making related to refining facilities. Taking this into consideration, the nation may well consider operating the aforementioned storage facilities as facilities dedicated solely to crude oil. More specifically, Korea can use these facilities to attract US oil companies or traders of US nationality and allow these companies/traders to directly stock the facilities with US crude oil. If enough crude oil is attracted to the facilities, it can allow for increased spot crude oil transactions between domestic oil refiners and facility users. If the types of crude oil demanded by domestic oil refiners are attracted in sufficient quantities, it will have the effect of revitalizing spot crude oil transactions nationwide. This in turn will attract even greater oil reserves to the storage facilities.
To facilitate increased oil transactions, the government should also consider enforcing minimum purchase amounts of crude oil for domestic oil refiners; these minimums purchase amounts should be specified in the facility lease agreements with the US oil companies and/or traders. Since enforcing a minimum purchase amount would effectively guarantee US oil companies/traders a certain amount of crude oil sales, it would provide a greater incentive for US oil companies/traders to take advantage of domestic commercial storage facilities.
Domestic oil refiners, or US oil companies or traders, could also transport US crude oil for widespread use nationwide. However, a short-term approach is recommended to meet current spot demand from domestic oil refiners.
(2) Increase energy cooperation between Korea and the US to build a crude oil export infrastructure along the northwestern coast of the US
In order to shift the focus of the introduction of US crude oil from short-term spot crude oil transactions to large-scale long-term contracts and/or lessen dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports through increased US crude oil imports, conditions must be created that allow for the large-scale supply of US crude oil to the international oil market. Many believe that the issue of lessening dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports by increasing US oil imports can be addressed once the Trump Administration adopts favorable oil policies that effectively raise the potential of US crude oil production. In other words, the issue of large-scale US crude oil exports is one that must be addressed using a mid-to-long term approach.
Another issue that demands attention is that of the US crude oil export infrastructure. Currently, harbors for crude oil export that are connected via pipelines to major LTO producing areas are mainly clustered in the Gulf of Mexico, and there are no export harbors where VLCCs (very large crude carriers) and ULCCs (ultra low cost carriers) can dock for large-scale exports. Efforts are now underway to improve the export infrastructure and export terminals of harbors along the Gulf of Mexico, but it is highly probable that such efforts will mainly benefits exports to Latin America or Europe rather than East Asia, including Korea.
In the mid-to-long term, it is necessary to review measures to establish and strengthen an export infrastructure that will allow for US crude oil exports from western locations in the US, particularly along the northwestern coast of the US or the western coast of Canada, locations which are geographically closer to Korea. The construction of export infrastructure in western US locations (especially along the northwestern coast) must be preceded by the construction of pipelines that connect harbors to Bakken in North Dakota, one of the nation��s top LTO producing areas. If pipelines can be built that connect Bakken to the northwestern coast of the US (the state of Washington or the state of Oregon) or the west coast of Canada (British Colombia), this can set the stage for large-scale US crude oil imports to Korea.
The realization of pipelines connecting these keys areas is dependent on support from state governments through which the pipelines pass as well as the federal government. Fortunately, the Trump Administration seems to be in favor of the construction of an oil transport infrastructure, and has already said that it would reapprove the construction of the Keystone Pipeline, which had previously been thwarted by the Obama Administration. In light of these favorable conditions, Korea should now make efforts to increase its cooperation with US officials in the mid-to-long term with the goal of establishing a crude oil export infrastructure along the northwestern coast of the US that includes pipelines connecting key areas.
BAS 2016-13.pdf |
