| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Background and Purpose
Major countries in the world are promoting EVs(electric vehicles) in terms of environmental aspects such as improvement of air quality, reduction of carbon dioxide emission, energy security aspect of decreasing dependence on oil, and industrialization aspect of developing a new industry. Under the potential growth of the EV market, many developed countries began paying attention to the deployment of EVs. China is implementing decisive policies and investing heavily in an effort to become a leader in the EV market, rather than to enter the traditional automobile market. The EU is deploying EVs with the 'e-mobility' strategy. The United States is supporting research and investment to build a national charging networks.
During the VIP Presentation of the Conference of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, meanwhile, the Korean government pledged to replace 100% of the operating vehicles on Jejudo Island with electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. EVs, which are a leading type of eco-friendly vehicle, are seen by many as an effective means of responding to climate change and are recognized as one of the six new energy industries. To realize its goal of widespread EV adoption and spur the growth of the domestic EV market, the Korean government established the Third Master Plan for Eco-friendly Vehicle Development and Distribution in December 2015 soon after the Paris conference.
However, despite the government��s aggressive efforts to foster the EV industry, EV distribution nationwide is still low. The insufficiency of the EV charging infrastructure is recognized by many as one of the main factors currently impeding EV distribution and proliferation. Building a sufficient EV charging infrastructure is a prerequisite to effective EV distribution, making it imperative to put equal emphasis on developing the EV market and the EV charging infrastructure market at the same time. Mid-to-long term policy support is needed to achieve the co-evolutionary development of the EV market and EV charging infrastructure market.
This study focuses on the following two issues related to the co-evolutionary fostering of the EV market and the EV charging infrastructure market.
Firstly, one of the problems of countries that have relatively more EVs is the 'chicken and egg' problem between EVs and EV charging infrastructure. Under such a dilemma, the diffusion of EV is not being carried out smoothly. We analyze the problem of 'chicken and egg' which is the main problem of supplying EVs and try to derive policy implications.
Secondly, We address the issue of setting policy support for the co-evolutionary fostering the EV charging infrastructure market. The Third Master Plan for Eco-friendly Vehicle Development and Distribution focuses on establishing an EV charging infrastructure based on private capital investment, marking a switch from previous plans�� focus on government-led strategies. With an overarching goal of expanding a low-cost, high-efficiency EV charging infrastructure, the newly drafted plan emphasizes attracting private capital investment for the growth of the private charging service market rather than relying on a limited government budget. This has laid a foundation for revitalizing private paid EV charging services in order to build a market-driven charging infrastructure. Hence, this study identifies and analyzes the ecosystem of the EV charging infrastructure business, focusing primarily on the mechanisms of the EV charging service market, and proposes measures to help foster the market.
2. Summary and Policy Implication
(A) Analysis of ��chicken and egg�� problem between EV and charging infrastructure
The unique ��chicken and egg�� problem of the EV market needs to be solved for the successful deployment of EVs. The ��chicken and egg�� problem of EVs is accompanied by an indirect network effect. The indirect network effect of EVs means a positive cyclical structure that the increase in electric vehicle supply has a positive effect to constructing EV charging stations and the expansion of charging stations has positively affects to the increase of EVs. Solving the ��Chicken and egg�� problem is to find a way to expand the indirect network effect. This study adopts ABM (agent based model) simulation methodology to investigate ��chicken and egg�� problem in EV market. We analyze with the methodology an effect of coevolution of EV and charging infrastructure according to government subsidy allocation policy. The ABM used in this study is an agent-based model for two interacting markets (EVs and EV charging infrastructure). This model considers the consumer decision-making model for purchase of EVs and the indirect network effect between the EV market and the charging infrastructure market. There are three kinds of agents in this model, consumers, charging stations suppliers, and governments. Consumer and charging station suppliers follow stochastic processes and optimization processes for their decision. The consumer decides to purchase an EV based on the price difference between the EV and the fossil fuel car and the distribution of the charging station around their residence. The charging station supplier enters the charging station market considering the number of EVs near the charging station to enter and the competition charging station. The government will implement a subsidy allocation policy that will most actively promote EV distribution. This model gives body to the interaction between agents through a stochastic optimization process. The purpose of this model is to analyze the effect of the subsidy allocation policy on the co-evolution of EV and charging station supply in the strategies of consumers and charging companies.
The simulation shows that indirect network effects between the supply of private charging stations and the supply of EVs can occur when the electric vehicle market is on the initial stage and the daily mileage does not deviate significantly from the full charging mileage of one EV. In addition, when personal chargers are installed, it is difficult to form a private charging market without government subsidies. This model shows that EV supply can be activated partly when the charger is constructed according to the policy goal of the government. However, it is shown that a policy of giving fully direct purchase subsidies to electric vehicles may be more effective than any subsidy allocation policies for the early market formation of electric vehicles. In this model, if the government does not give sufficient subsidies to EV charging companies, EV charging companies will not be able to enter the charging market and private charging stations will not be installed. In the absence of a private charging station, electric vehicle supply remains at a level similar to the case where the government does not give subsidies to EVs.
For EV users, private chargers and personal chargers are complementary goods. However, for private charger suppliers, personal chargers are perceived as competitive. Even if the supply of EVs is increased, the rate of utilization for private chargers will not be high when charging EVs mainly occurs at home. The lower utilization rate of private charging means that private charge suppliers are less likely to earn revenues from recharging services. If charging suppliers cannot earn revenues from recharging services, potential charge suppliers will be reluctant to enter the charging market. The diffusion of EVs according to the utilization rate of private chargers shows that the higher the utilization rate of private chargers, the more EVs can be supplied. This shows that the higher the utilization rate, the greater the indirect network effect of EV supply.
As a result of analyzing 'chicken and egg' problem between electric vehicle and charging infrastructure, the following suggestions were drawn. First, the government is expected to maintain the electric vehicle purchasing subsidy system until it can grow self-sufficient. Second, the government should consider the direction in which individual chargers will be delivered. In other words, the government should set whether to charge the EV main charging source as an personal charger or as a private charger. Third, the government should consider policies that can increase the utilization rate of private chargers. To do so, the government must give the EV user incentives to switch the main charging source from the individual charger to the private one. Fourth, in order to increase the number of private charging stations, market conditions must be created to ensure the profitability of privae charger operators. It is important to consider ways in which chargers can envision various business models that can pursue profits.
(B) Policy suggetions for fostering the domestic EV charging service market
A majority of the potential EV charging demand can be met by providing sufficient charging methods at people��s homes and workplaces where they (and their cars) spend most of their time. However, given the high proportion of households that live in multi-unit dwellings, such as apartments, in Seoul and other large cities nationwide, it may be difficult to overcome existing limitations for home EV charging in the near future.
Furthermore, it is important to note that people do not use their cars solely for commuting to and from work. EVs must allow users to travel to and from the suburbs and other regions and provide the same freedoms as internal combustion engine vehicles, or they will inevitably face limitations in penetrating the market. Until there is a widespread, well-founded belief that EVs can easily be charged anytime anywhere, most people will not consider switching to an EV from their existing internal combustion engine vehicle due to fears of being stranded out in the middle of nowhere because of a dead battery.
As such, it is essential to install public charging station that allows EV users to charge their vehicles anytime and anywhere, and such station must be systematically operated and managed to create an environment of easy and convenient EV use. To increase EV convenience, the EV charging service market must expand and work well.
According to current figures (as of this publication), however, one EV charging station can accommodate an average of only 6.8 EV units, which is relatively low compared to the 1,514 units of internal combustion engine vehicles that can be accommodated on average by one gas station (including LPG gas stations). Given these figures, it is unrealistic to presume that an EV charging station can effectively operate and profit as an independent business following the same model as a traditional gas station.
Moreover, at a time when the demand for EV charging services is still very low, there are limitations in expanding private capital investment (which places its top priority on profits) as a means of promoting the domestic EV charging service market. Given these limitations, a more feasible method of promoting the market can be developed based on public policies adopted by the central and/or local governments. Using this as a basis, this study suggests the following measures to support the promotion of the domestic EV charging service market.
1) Temporary subsidies for EV charging service rates
The supply of EV charging services can be seen as a type of electricity sales (resale) business, in which EV charging service rates consist of electricity rates plus a charging service fee. If the electricity rates for EV charging paid by the user are the same as the rates paid to utility companies by EV charging service providers, then the EV charging service providers�� profits come solely from the charging service fee. However, if a subsidy (granted using public funds) were provided to cover part of the charging service fee, it could lower overall EV charging service rates, thereby creating increased charging demand and bringing increased profits to service providers. The use of subsidies in this way is worthy of serious consideration.
2) Support for fostering EVSEOs
Major domestic EV charging service providers maintain a network of charging stations outfitted with charging equipment owned by purchased through facility investment. In order to increase the number of charging stations, it is worthy to consider to foster EV supply equipment operators (EVSEOs) who own EV charging equipment and run charging stations. However, in order to be profitable, EVSEOs must also have sources of profit other than charging service supply fees. For increased profitability, EVSEOs can commission the operation and management of charging stations to charging service providers (CSPs) or EV service providers (EVSPs) through the means of a contract.
EVSEOs can also adopt a revenue model in which revenue is generated through advertisements placed on screens installed in EV charging equipment or on signs at charging stations. This model is similar to that of existing traffic ads placed at bus stops and road facilities nationwide. Some examples of companies using this strategy include OpConnect and Volta in the US and Ensto in Finland. These companies earn advertising revenue by placing ads where they can easily be seen by pedestrians and EV users, such as in parking lots at shopping centers, big box stores, commercial buildings, and/or universities. Fostering EVSEOs using advertising revenue would allow for the establishment of charging stations in urban areas where construction sites for charging stations are not hard to obtain due to high land prices. |
