| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
There are many kinds of green growth policies and strategies in Korea. Since 1999, the 3-year Climate Change Strategy is the first policy for climate change. After the three 3-year Climate Change Strategy, the 5-year Climate Change Plan was introduced in 2008, and the 5-year Climate Change Comprehensive Plan was introduced in 2016. The first Roadmap for 2020 GHG reduction target was introduced in 2014, and the second Roadmap for 2030 GHG reduction target was introduced in 2016.
All of these green growth policies and strategies need to be evaluated by adequate methods since these policies are established every 5 years.
The purpose of this paper is to develop the evaluation index by which to evaluate the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in each sectors. We develop the index such that the index can express the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of sectors and the extent for green growth.
In the first step, we assess the correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and the input factors(energy consumption, electricity consumprion) and output factors(value added, total output, output of representative products). Inthe second step, we analyze the trend of energy intensity(energy consumption/output) and greenhouse gas intensity(CO�� emissions/output) in terms of output factors. In the last step, we choose the factors which has the strong correlation with greenhouse gas emissions and has the consistent trend in energy intensity and greenhouse gas intensity.
2. Summary
In the power sector, since the CO�� emissions per electricity production has the strong correlation with CO�� emissions, and has the consistent trend in the energy intensity and CO�� intensity. the main evaluation index of electricity sector is CO�� emissions per electricity production. The main evaluation index in refinery industry is CO�� emissions per refinery inputs since the refinery input has the strong correlation with CO�� emissions and the energy intensity and CO�� intensity based on refinery inputs have declined since 1990. The energy production of heat and electricity has strong correlation with CO�� emissions, and the energy consumption and CO�� emissions per energy production have increased since 1999, so the evaluation index is CO�� emissions per energy production in district heating industry.
In steel industry, the production of crude steel has strong correlation with CO�� emissions and has the consistent trend in energy intensity and CO�� intensity based on crude steel production. The evaluation index is CO�� emission per crude steel production. However, there are two distinct production process and the energy intensity of the two process is different, we develop the separate evaluation index, one for furnace process and the other for electric arc. The evaluation index for furnace is direct CO�� emissions per crude steel production from furnace, and the evaluation index for electric arc is indirect CO�� emission from electricity consumption per crude steel production from electric arc furnace.
The production of clinker has a strong correlation with COe emissions and the energy intensity and CO�� intensity based on clinker production have a consistent trend. As a result, the CO�� emission per clinker production is the adequate index to evaluate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in cement industry.
In glass industry, the COe intensity based on the production of glass production is the adequate evaluation index for greenhouse gas emissions since it has relative strong correlation with CO�� emissions and has the consistent trend in the energy intensity and CO�� intensity. In ceramic industry, the CO�� emission per sanitary ceramic production is the evaluation index for COe emission reduction efforts since it has a relatively strong correlation with CO�� emissions and has a consistent trend in energy intensity and CO�� intensity.
The production of paper and total outputs have strong correlation with CO�� emissions and have the same declining trend in the energy intensity and CO�� intensity based on the paper production. As a result, we select the CO�� emissions per paper production as a evaluation index for CO�� emission reduction effort in paper industry.
The production of basic products as ethylene, propylene has a strong correlation with the CO�� emissions and the intensity of energy and CO�� emissions based on the production of basic products consistently declined after 1990. So, the production of basic products is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emission reduction effort in petrochemical industry. The alternative evaluation index is CO�� emission intensity based on the production of ethylene.
Since the production of total machinery production does not have a correlation with CO�� emission, but the total output has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions, we select the CO�� emissions per total output as a evaluation index for CO�� emissions reduction effort in machinery indsutry.
The mask layer of wafer has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions and has the consistently declining intensity of energy consumption and CO�� emissions. And the mask layer of wafer the more recent unit for the activities than mask of wafer in semi-conductor industry, the CO�� emissions per mask layer of wafer is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emissions reduction effort in semi-conductor industry.
In the display industry, we select the CO�� emissions per LCD production as a evaluation index for CO�� emissions since it has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions and has consistently declining trend in energy intensity and CO�� emission intensity. However, the evaluation index shoul be transferred to the CO�� emission intensity based on the OLED production since the production of OLED is increasing rapidly recently.
The total production of cars has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions and both of the energy intensity and CO�� emission intensity based on the car production are increasing. As a result, the CO�� emissions per car production is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emissions in car industry.
In the railway sector, we develop the tow evaluation index for inter-city passenger and intra-city passenger since we can not separate the energy consumption and CO�� emissions for passenger and freight. The direct emissions per passenger transport is the evaluation index for inter-city passenger, and the indirect emissions per passenger intra-city passenger(subway, metropolitan electric railway). In the road transport sector, the CO�� emissions per passenger is the adequate evaluation indexfor CO�� emissions since it has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions. In the maritime sector, the CO�� emissions per domestic passenger transported is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emission reduction effort even though it does not strong correlation with CO�� emissions. In air sector, CO�� emissions per domestic passenger is the evaluation index.
In the residential sector, CO�� emissions per household number is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emissions. In commercial sector, the CO�� emissions per service area is the adequate evaluation index for CO�� emissions since it has a strong correlation with CO�� emissions.
3. Policy Suggestion
We developed the CO�� emissions per unit of product production for the evaluation of CO�� emission reduction effort in each sector. The intensity index can facilitate the reduction of CO�� emissions in spite of cycle of economic growth. As a result, the intensity index can contribute to the low-carbon economic system in Korea. Since arget and sectoral target for CO�� emission reduction are based on BAU(business as usual), we have to transform the BAU target into intensity target for each sector.
The good quality of data on sectoral CO�� emissions and product productions is necessary for the evaluation index development. And the acquired data should be official for the credibility of evaluation index. In case of multi-products, we have to develop the method by which we weigh the each product in the evaluation index. |
