| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. The purpose of the study
The global gas market is undergoing structural changes due to the shale gas revolution and market liberalization policies. The hub of the global gas import market is being relocated to Asia, a region that is showing remarkable economic growth and increasing energy demand. In fact, Asia��s gas demand surpassed that of Europe to become the region with the greatest amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. While the Asian market is growing, the European market is facing the opposite situation, even though it is the world��s second biggest consumer of gas. Gas consumption is lower than it was before the economic crisis, and production within the area is constantly decreasing. Europe implemented a market integration policy led by the European Commission of the European Union, but the European gas market is facing a challenge due to mutually exclusive and restrictive energy policies among nations and tense relationships with major suppliers like Russia. The LNG trading patterns are also changing due to the contrasting changes in gas demand between Asia and Europe. A great deal of LNG cargo that had been sold to Europe is being exported and reexported to Asia for arbitrage due to the increased LNG demand in Asia.
As such, it is expected that there will be a rapid structural change in the global gas import market and changes in gas prices in the future. Nonetheless, there is insufficient basic research data on how Korea, the world��s second biggest LNG importer, can establish measures to deal with these changes. At this point, with the emerging buyers�� advantage in the LNG market, Korea must come up with countermeasures against demand uncertainty by resolving the rigidity of LNG import agreements and reestablishing strategies to import LNG as the market��s flexible LNG supply increases.
This study is divided into two sections: an empirical analysis verifying the structural changes of the LNG market, and a presentation of countermeasures for LNG imports in Korea in response to the market��s structural changes by referencing cases of neighboring countries. First, this study verifies the long-run equilibrium and the convergence of prices through empirical analysis using the typical market prices of gas in the actual region, through which it verifies the structural changes in the gas market and provides implications. Then, this study analyzes the issues in the LNG market��s process of structural changes and examines the cases of countermeasures taken by neighboring countries also responding to the LNG market changes, thereby exploring proper countermeasures for LNG imports in Korea.
2. Research and results
The global LNG market is undergoing structural changes. Changes in the supply structure were anticipated after the shale gas revolution; they began when LNG export cargo set sail for the first time this year since the shale gas revolution. The LNG demand in Asia is expecting a rapid increase along with the economic growth of rising nations, but the demand in Europe is expecting stagnation or decrease. The impact of low oil prices has led to the rapid decline of gas prices in local gas markets all over the world compared to when oil prices were high, and the Asia premium in Northeast Asia has disappeared in the last few years. The interregional price gap is shrinking as trade among local markets has become more active, and the global LNG market is gradually integrating, as found in the results of this study��s empirical analysis.
Japan, the world��s biggest LNG importer, rapidly increased its imports after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, but excess supply is expected with the amount in the already-signed agreement due to the increased uncertainty regarding competing fuels and gas demand. Japan established a competitive market among participants through a market liberalization policy, like Europe and the US implemented in the past to reform the energy market structure, and came up with a strategy to increase trade flexibility by opening a trading market. Neighboring China is also reforming the structure of its energy market by establishing a trading market and implementing a market liberalization policy.
With such structural changes in the market, Korea must also reexamine its LNG import policy. It is necessary to establish short-term and long-term measures for efficient LNG imports in a situation where excess supply of LNG is expected in the short run.
The rigidity of the currently signed long-term agreements must be resolved in the short run. It is also important that unfair terms, such as the clause about restraining destinations by actively using the buyers�� advantage market situation, be removed and resale of imported quantities be enabled. To this end, Korea must take joint measures with other major LNG importers. Furthermore, as implied by the results of this empirical research, it might be appropriate for short- and mid-term measures in this situation of gradual market integration to interwork price indexes, such as Henry Hub or NBP, that reflect the local supply and demand. This is an alternative to oil price sliding in the current long-term agreements until a highly reliable price index is established within the area.
In the long run, it is necessary to review plans to improve flexibility in trade and LNG imports. Trade flexibility can be improved by creating an environment where market participants can trade freely. Korea��s neighboring countries, like Japan and China, established market liberalization policies to create a trading market and are constantly reforming its structure. Korea also made efforts to reform the structure of the energy market in the last two decades but, for various reasons, failed to achieve constant reform. Recently, with the government��s lead, Korea is re-attempting to reform the gas market structure. As announced by the government, creating an environment for wholesale market competition and promoting direct imports in the private sector will help establish a trading market in the future and help create an environment to lower the costs of LNG imports through competition. Moreover, the gas markets in Japan and China are far bigger than in Korea. Therefore, for efficient LNG imports, it is necessary to actively use the trading markets (trading hubs) of neighboring countries. It would be possible to resell surplus supply through those markets and use them as a source of supply as well. |
