| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
Korea��s government hopes that the development of non-traditional resources will enable the Korea��s gas industry to take a leap forward. Although the development of non-traditional resources has had a great impact on the global energy market and the domestic and global economies, there has been no empirical report that it has had a positive effect on domestic gas industries. The reason why non-traditional resource development has less positive impact on the domestic gas industry is that the domestic gas industry ecosystem and policy focuses on stable gas supply and demand. Therefore, in order for the domestic gas industry to have a positive impact from the development of non-traditional gas, it is necessary to convert the domestic market- oriented gas industry into an overseas-oriented gas industry. This study analyzes the changes in the gas market and the gas development policies of major countries due to the development of unconventional gas and then studies the countermeasures for the domestic gas industry to advance overseas.
2. Summary
Domestic gas consumption increased from 23.4 million tons in 2005 to 33.4 million tons in 2015, an annual average increase of 3.7%. However, gas consumption declined for the second consecutive year with an average annual rate of 8.9% after reaching 40.3 million tons in 2013. Natural gas demand is expected to decline by 0.34% per annum from 36.5 million tons in 2014 to 34.7 million tons in 2029. Global natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 2.3% from 2,774 bcm in 2005 to reach 3,469 bcm in 2015. World LNG consumption increased by an annual average of 6.0% in the year 188.8bcm 2005 it was reached in the 338.3bcm 2015. The global gas trade (PNG + LNG) increased by 3.7% annually from 721.5bcm in 2005 to reach 1,042.4bcm by 2015. The share of LNG in global natural gas trading rose from 35.4% in 2005 to 48.0% in 2015. This is evidence that LNG is becoming important in the global natural gas market, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Global natural gas demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4% from 3,507bcm in 2013 to 5,160bcm in 2040. Global LNG demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% from 257mn tonnes in 2015 to 597mn tonnes in 2040. By region, non-OECD Asian countries, including China, are projected to increase by 6.1% per annum from 60.7 million tonnes in 2015 to 266.8 million tonnes in 2040. Non-OECD Asian countries are expected to account for more than 60% of LNG demand growth for the forecast period. LNG liquefaction plants�� capacity increased from 291 MTPA at the end of 2014 to 301.5 MTPA in January 2016. The capacity of the world's liquefaction plants is projected to reach 459MTPA in 2025, an increase of 51%. In 2015, the capacity of the world LNG regasification plant is 757.1 MTPA, which increased by 24 MTPA in 2015. From 2015 to 2021, the capacity of the regasification plant is expected to increase significantly in Asia, particularly in China and India.
Domestic demand for natural gas is projected to decline due to a decrease in power generation. The slowdown in domestic gas consumption is a threat for domestic gas companies. The government is trying to overcome the current crisis by fostering the domestic gas industry as an export industry. In December 2015, the government announced the 'Natural Gas Industry Development Strategy' and set up three strategies of enhancing price competitiveness, creating new markets, and improving customer service. In order to create new markets, the government will promote the development of four new natural gas industries (FLNG, LNG bunkering, fuel cell, hydrogen filling infrastructure expansion), overseas downstream business (acquisition base, piping etc.), enhancement of natural gas technology competitiveness. As the second largest LNG importing country in the world, the government will take advantage of its technological competitiveness in the construction of LNG regasificaiton plant and transportation network to make the gas downstream sector a new overseas advanced strategic industry.
3. Policy suggestions
1) Strategic entry target
In order to participate in the LNG liquefaction plant project including FLNG, it is necessary to improve the technology of liquefaction process and accumulate track record. However, it is not easy for domestic gas companies and engineering companies to acquire proprietary liquefaction process technology in the difficult situation of participating in the upstream of gas development. In order to overcome this, it is required to improve the technology related to resource development. Currently, as investment in resource development is shrinking due to poor investment in overseas resource development, it is difficult to participate in the liquefaction plant project market through collaboration with upstream resource development. However, Korea is the second largest LNG importing country in the world and continues to participate in LNG projects in Australia, Canada, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. If Korean companies can participate strategically as an independent or major partner in overseas LNG projects by utilizing the purchasing power of KOGAS, strategies for improving core technologies connected with resource development can be improved.
This report considers Asia as a strategic investment area for the LNG regasififcation plant project and gas transportation network construction. Increase in demand for natural gas and LNG in Asia will lead the global gas and LNG demand. In particular, in Asia, gas demand between 2013 and 2040 increased by about 740 bcm at an annual average of 3.6%, gas production is expected to increase by about 300bcm at an annual average of 1.9%. In particular, Southeast Asia has been a major export region of gas, but it is increasingly likely to turn into a gas import region due to a decrease in natural gas reserves. Natural gas trading in Southeast Asia is estimated to net exports of about 56bcm in 2014, but in 2040, net imports by about 27bcm. LNG demand in non-OECD Asian countries, including China, will increase by about 200 million tons at an annual average of 6.1% in 2015~2040. It is expected to account for more than 60% of global LNG demand increasement over the forecast period. LNG demand growth in China and India is expected to account for 20% and 17% of global demand growth, respectively. LNG demand in Southeast Asia is expected to account for about 24% of global demand growth, rising by 81.7 million tons during the forecast period.
2) Advance into Asian gas infrastructure market using AIIB
As Asia is expected to see an increase in natural gas consumption and an increase in LNG trading, many gas pipelines are expected to be built for PNG import, gas transportation from LNG receiving terminals to final consumers, and the improvement of energy accessibility. AS the participation in Asian gas infrastructure market including gas pipeline is in line with the purpose of establishing AIIB and Korea has a high technological competitiveness in this field, the use of AIIB funds will provide new business opportunities for gas companies.
3) Provide investment environment information for overseas direct investment
In addition to economic growth, there is an increasing trend of infrastructure/resource development project opportunities in Asian countries, the Asian market is seen as a potential market for domestic infrastructure/resource development companies. Nonetheless, due to the nature of infrastructure/resource development projects including always uncertainties, unstable political situation in most Asian countries, legal uncertainties due to lack of investment related laws and regulations, information on the investing laws and regulations of the investing country is very important to the investing companies. Therefore, it will be necessary to analyze and organize the government-led Asian infrastructure / energy investment laws in the future. |
