| 摘要 | CSIS/RIAC
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The U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) convened the latest in a series of expert meetings on U.S.-Russia relations in October 2017 in Moscow. The mood was grim: participants were unanimous that the current state of bilateral relations is dire and in danger of spiraling down further. In Russia, that country’s representatives reported, the conventional wisdom holds that disagreements between the two countries are intractable. Where the United States sees the Ukraine crisis as having caused the downturn in relations, Russians see it as a result of the failure to better ensure Russia’s security in the years since the end of the Cold War. The Trump administration’s foreign policy, moreover, increasingly feels to Moscow very similar to that of the Obama administration, particularly when it comes to Ukraine and Syria, even though many American specialists see it as unpredictable and still evolving.
The Russian perception that the current security order in Europe leaves it at a disadvantage The crisis in Ukraine The crisis over political/election interference
But, absent resolution of the three factors named above, any coordination and cooperation, even on the most important of these topics, will be issue-specifc and at risk of falling hostage to underlying tension in the relationship.
In areas in which policy goals and parameters are clear, but substantial disagreements remain—most notably in the context of overall European security (including, but not limited to, Ukraine), arms control, and policies in Syria—the group recommends a combination of working-level coordination by the two governments (which exists) and continuing Track Two engagement. The latter would take the form of expert working groups, comprising specialists and including former senior officials able to develop options for ways forward. Such groups can offer expertise and knowledge and serve as a capability multiplier for governments. These efforts can be bilateral for some issues (e.g., arms control) but must be multilateral for others (European security). The Track Two process can support government working-level engagement, both in areas in which decisions can be made at that level and by helping to develop clear recommendations for senior decisionmakers.
In areas where much remains to be done to define the art of the possible, such as developing mechanisms to preclude illegal interference (and the perception of interference) in one another’s domestic political processes, designing rules of the road to foster both states’ cybersecurity, or coordinating lessons to be learned from health care policy and approaches to international health, a combination of Track Two working groups and collaborative research and analysis papers by experts can help lay the groundwork for further engagement.
In Syria, where Russia's intervention has brought it substantial success, an endgame approaches.
Meanwhile, participants generally agreed that the challenge, and thus the resolution, of Ukraine is inextricably tied to European security more broadly.
Participants agreed that Russia and the United States are not likely to emerge as close partners: the two countries are looking to deter and contain one another, and perceive threats in one another’s policies and actions. This makes engagement and deconfliction, as well as coordination in areas where it is needed, that much more critical.
Acknowledgments
This report is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.
About the Authors
Olga Oliker is a senior adviser and director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Andrey Kortunov is director general of the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow. This report is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
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