| 来源类型 | Report |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Elections, Crisis, and What to Expect in the Year Ahead | |
| Sarah Baumunk; Richard Miles; Linnea Sandin; Mark L. Schneider | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-01-30 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 概述 | 2019 will be another pivotal year across the map in the Western Hemisphere with upcoming national elections in seven countries—all of which has the potential to affect both domestic politics and geopolitical relations within the region. |
| 摘要 | The Issue 2019 will be another pivotal year across the map in the Western Hemisphere. The region continues to battle several ongoing challenges: the Venezuelan crisis, the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship under new Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the rapid deterioration of Nicaragua, the fight for transparency in the Northern Triangle, and an uncertain economic horizon. Seven countries will hold national elections—Argentina, Bolivia, Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay—each of which has the potential to affect domestic politics as well as geopolitical relations within the region. Introduction Ongoing Regional and Domestic Crises Coming into 2019 illegitimate legitimacy vague offering acceptance deterioration Plan El Salvador Seguro CICIG MACCIH A fifth uncertainty is the economic horizon. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) released their annual look at the new year which anticipates that global uncertainty that will feed regional uncertainty. It predicts 1.7 percent growth overall in the region, with sharp differences between Venezuela’s economy that is expected to plunge another 10 percent, Argentina dropping 1.8 percent, and Panama growing close to 6 percent. Canada is expected to have similar growth with an estimated 1.8 percent growth. The United States’ trade confrontation with China poses risks to global prospects, and any Chinese economic downturn will echo with force in the Western Hemisphere. Upcoming Elections to Watch Argentina cost of utilities almost 100 percent 37 percent new presidential bid several corruption illicit association alleged cover-up polling many Peronist moderates Bolivia allowed to submit failed referendum overruled the referendum widespread protests economic growth literacy public health education top six candidates in a recent poll Canada most seats 5 points ahead two other parties declined 1 in 8 Canadians reverse eliminate campaigning El Salvador high levels corruption more than 50 percent support further behind expelled sentenced Guatemala June 16, 2019 CICIG implicated more than 600 people constitutionally barred banned Five parties have officially presented candidates lawyers Thelma Aldana Guatemalan citizens living in the United States will be eligible to vote Panama “traditional” and “neoliberal.” close election 36 percent increasingly close relationship corruption scandals gay marriage economic slowdown 20 percent new campaign finance laws Uruguay recent poll expressed a preference in the past decade resignation 0.5 percent Conclusion Sarah Baumunk is a research associate for the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Richard Miles is a senior fellow with the CSIS Americas Program. Linnea Sandin is program manager and research associate with the CSIS Americas Program. Mark Schneider is a senior adviser with the CSIS Americas Program. Mia Kazman is an intern with the CSIS Americas Program. This brief is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report. CSIS Briefs are produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2019 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. |
| URL | https://www.csis.org/analysis/elections-crisis-and-what-expect-year-ahead |
| 来源智库 | Center for Strategic and International Studies (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/328027 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sarah Baumunk,Richard Miles,Linnea Sandin,et al. Elections, Crisis, and What to Expect in the Year Ahead. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 190130_Baumunk_et_al（1262KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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