| 摘要 | An earlier version of this article appeared in
PRISM (vol. 8, no. 1, 2019)
, the quarterly journal of complex operations published by the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.
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Calderón’s Crusade
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Juárez
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Peña Nieto’s Pact
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Ayotzinapa
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Diffusion and Diversification
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2018: Homicide Rates by Mexican State (per 100,000 people) Source: Homicide rates were calculated using intentional homicides (homicidos dolosos) from the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protec- tion (Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana) and population projections from the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población).53
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Basic Lessons
Violence prevention programs should be based on evidence, not political expediency. This means the next government needs to define a clear methodology for selecting the municipalities or districts eligible for funding and then help local authorities or non-profit groups develop projects designed to produce measurable results. Transparency is essential to avoid the clientelism and corruption that has undermined both anti- poverty and anti-violence efforts in the past. The selection, monitoring, and evaluation of all publicly funded social programs should be subject to public scrutiny and outside evaluation by recognized experts from Mexican universities and think tanks. Demilitarization and police reform should go together. The next president should work with state governors to establish benchmarks for the military to withdraw gradually from its police duties while empowering specially trained and vetted federal police units to take on criminal organizations. States and municipalities should also obtain the funding necessary to recruit more and better police officers by offering them higher salaries, better training and equipment, and merit-based promotions. Police cannot purge themselves of corrupt and abusive officers. External oversight through independent auditors or civilian review boards is essential at the federal, state, and municipal level. Justice reform should continue. Truth commissions and special prosecutors are necessary but insufficient to address widespread impunity. The new government should find the resources and will to strengthen the capacity of independent prosecutors and the courts, both at the state and federal levels. Although some changes are controversial, especially limits on pre-trial detention, the new system remains Mexico’s best opportunity to create a justice system that is both efficient and fair.
Mary Speck
is a senior associate (non-resident) with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.
This report is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
© 2019 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
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See journalist Dana Priest on US-Mexican cooperation under Calderón: “US role at a crossroads in Mexico’s intelligence war on the cartels,” Washington Post, April 27, 2013, https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/us-role-at-a-crossroads- in-mexicos-intelligence-war-on-the-cartels/2013/04/27/b578b3ba-a3b3-11e2-be47-b44febada3a8_story.html?utm_ter- m=.1e2aa376033d. Nick Miroff and William Booth, “DEA intelligence aids Mexican marines in drug war,” Washington Post, December 4, 2010, http:// www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/03/AR2010120306820.html. See “US-Mexican Security Cooperation,” Congressional Research Service, 26, for extraditions from 1996 to 2016. Mexico’s con- stitution only allows extradition of its citizens in extraordinary cases. Prior to 1996, Mexico did not consider any cases involving its citizens to be extraordinary. 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Etellekt Consultores, “Séptimo Informe de Violencia Política,” July 9, 2018, 16 https://www.etellekt.com/reporte/septimo-in- forme-de-violencia-politica-en-mexico.html. “Víctimas de Delitos del Fuero Común 2017,” Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SNSP), Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana, http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/nueva-metodologia/CNSP-V%C3%ADctimas-2017.pdf; CONAPO, “Proyecciones de la Población de México y de las Entidades Federativas, 2016-2050,” Open Data, Government of Mexico, https:// datos.gob.mx/busca/dataset/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2016-2050. Manuel Espino Bucio, “2017, También el más violento para policías,” El Universal, December 28, 2017, https://www.eluniversal. com.mx/nacion/seguridad/2017-tambien-el-mas-violento-para-policias. Causa en Común, a Mexican NGO, maintains an inter- active map of murdered police agents by state. See “Registro de policías asesinados 2018” at http://causaencomun.org.mx/beta/ registro-de-policias-asesinados-2018/. “Inauguran 79 Batallón de Infantería en Tecalitlán, Jalisco, El Debate, Jan. 15, 2018, https://www.debate.com.mx/guadalajara/ Inauguran-79-Batallon-de-Infanteria-en-Tecalitlan-Jalisco-20180115-0319.html. “Tecalitlán. El ultimo rastro de los italianos,” El Universal, March 26, 2018, https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/tecalit-lan-el-ultimo-rastro-de-los-italianos. The state temporarily disbanded the municipal police, sending officers to another town for retraining. Abraham Acosta, “Policías de Tecalitlán no están detenidos, sino en un curso: Fiscalía,” Excelsior, Feb. 22, 2018. ttps:// www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2018/02/22/1222172. These include the chemical precursors used for methamphetamines and fentanyl, a synthetic opioid often added to heroin, with potentially lethal consequences. See Kristina Davis and Sandra Dibble, “Fentanyl has taken over America's drug market. Where is it coming from?” San Diego Union, June 17, 2018, https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/public-safety/sd-me-fentanyl- pipeline-20180617-story.html. “Mexico Travel Advisory,” US Department of State – Bureau of Consular Affairs, April 9, 2019, 2018, https://travel.state.gov/ content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html. “Víctimas de Delitos del Fuero Común 2017,” Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SNSP), Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana; “Víctimas de Delitos del Fuero Común 2018,” SNSP, Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana, http://secretari- adoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/nueva-metodologia/CNSP-V%C3%ADctimas-2018.pdf. See “Registro de policías asesinados 2018,” Causa en Común. Christopher Woody, “Mexico's oil company is losing more than a billion dollars a year to cartels — and its own employees are helping them out,” Business Insider, April 13, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/cartels-mexico-oil-theft-pemex-2018-4. “Mexico train robberies rise as thieves block tracks,” Associated Press, May 28, 2018, https://www.apnews.com/9147b3c5e7c- 54cceafb5375751a7bb99. See “Disappeared,” International Crisis Group, 19. |
