| 来源类型 | Commentary |
| 规范类型 | 评论 |
| In Spain, Fragmentation on the Right Leads to the Left | |
| Heather A. Conley; Donatienne Ruy | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-05-02 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 概述 | Spain has given outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists a plurality of votes and they will now form a government$but the political sphere remains fragmented and fragile$note CSIS’s Heather Conley and Donatienne Ruy. |
| 摘要 | On Sunday, April 28, Spaniards went to the polls with enthusiasm, recording the highest voter turnout since 2004 (75.75 percent). This election was a first for Spain in two regards: (1) there were five parties with national platforms competing in the election (rather than just the two largest national parties); and (2) a far-right party has returned to Spain for the first time since democracy was restored in 1975, gaining 10 percent of the vote. A new, politically fragile landscape emerges from this election, with the country reawakened to the dangers of an ultra-nationalist party whose popularity was initially driven by Catalonia’s desire for independence—though its hardened views gradually spread to other areas such as immigration and social issues. Spain adds one more datum point in a European pattern that has exposed the electoral implications of the political fragmentation of the right. Three Spanish parties divided the vote on the right: the People’s Party (PP), previously in power, suffered the biggest loss; the center-right Ciudadanos (Cs) gained some support; and the far-right, ultra-nationalist Vox party appeared on the national stage for the first time. On the left, the Socialists (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP) slightly overperformed the polls, partly propelled by the fear of the rise of a neo-Francoism embodied by Vox. PSOE and its leader, Pedro Sanchez, were the election’s winner in the fullest sense, gaining 38 additional seats in the Congress of Deputies (the lower house). Their main political competitor, Unidas Podemos, has substantially weakened. Moreover, Sanchez now has the electoral legitimacy he lacked when a no-confidence vote in the previous government led to his interim premiership. PP and its young leader, Pablo Casado, were the clear losers, having lost around half of the party’s seats to both Vox and Ciudadanos. Where does the country go from here? Sanchez hasannouncedhe will attempt to form a minority government solely with PSOE but with tacit support from some other parties to pass key legislation. UP is very keen to participate in any government in return for its support, given its diminished power. However, government formation will likely be delayed as Spain returns to the ballot box on May 26 for local, regional, and European elections. The results of those elections will either give a clear mandate to Sanchez for his strategy of a Socialist-only government or will force him to consider other coalition options. Ciudadanos has categoricallyrefusedany post-election cooperation with PSOE due to the socialists’ stated desire to maintain a dialogue with Catalan parties to resolve the constitutional crisis. Without this pledge, Ciudadanos would have been a natural “grand coalition” partner for PSOE and the party could have struck a potentially fatal political blow to its rival, PP, which could be further weakened following the May elections. Rivera’s pledge not to ally with PSOE means Ciudadanos will remain in opposition and thus will have to continue to outdo Vox and PP on their extreme positions on Catalonia to maintain political relevance. There is no doubt that Sanchez will have a difficult tenure. European analysts have tended to view this election as “proof of life” of Europe’s political left, following recent elections in Finland and Portugal’s center-left leadership. But this would be an incorrect or at least an incomplete conclusion to draw. Spain’s election represents a natural swing of the political pendulum following a long period of PP governance that is generally recognized for its corruption and poor management of the Catalonia independence movement. With a population fatigued by austerity, the fact that the center-left did well is both a testament to Sanchez’s grassroots political support and rural outreach, and to the decline of Podemos. In other words, there remains a viable center-left in Spain. This is not the case in other countries in Europe, such as France or Poland. While it is understandable that PSOE’s victory is celebrated by the left on the eve of the European elections, the celebration is premature. Spain will continue to be politically fragile as it reckons with the return of a poisonous nationalism, an alarming demographic decline in some rural areas of the country, and a challenging immigration situation. It is easy to forget that Spain’s return to democracy is quite recent—four short decades—and it should not be taken for granted. Heather A. Conley is senior vice president for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Donatienne Ruy is a research associate with the CSIS Europe Program. Commentaryis produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). |
| URL | https://www.csis.org/analysis/spain-fragmentation-right-leads-left |
| 来源智库 | Center for Strategic and International Studies (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/330085 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Heather A. Conley,Donatienne Ruy. In Spain, Fragmentation on the Right Leads to the Left. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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