全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): After Sistani and Khamenei—looming successions will shape the Middle East

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来源类型	Research Reports
规范类型	报告
	After Sistani and Khamenei—looming successions will shape the Middle East
	Abbas Kadhim; Barbara Slavin
发表日期	2019-07-15
出版年	2019
语种	英语
概述	As Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei age, the international community of Shia Muslims faces a looming void in religious and political leadership.
摘要	As Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei age, the international community of Shia Muslims faces a looming void in religious and political leadership. Whoever succeeds these leaders will determine the extent of international influence in Iraq, the direction of Iran’s foreign policy and nuclear program, and the nature of both countries’ relations with the United States. As the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative Director Abbas Kadhim and Future of Iran Initiative Director Barbara Slavin argue in their new Issue Brief “After Sistani and Khamenei: Looming Successions Will Shape the Middle East,” the successors to these two prominent leaders will be paramount in defining the political and social landscape of Iraq, Iran, and the greater Middle East. $Throughout the paper, Kadhim and Slavin explain Sistani’s and Khamenei’s unique political philosophies. Although Sistani is primarily a religious figure, he possesses unparalleled de facto authority in Iraqi politics. With his support, Iraq established a civil state and is pursuing democratization. Meanwhile, Khamenei leans right in both Iran’s foreign and domestic policy, supporting the opportunistic expansion of influence in the region and repressing democratic aspirations at home. Changes in either of these leadership styles could disrupt the current trajectory of Middle Eastern politics, particularly as tensions between Iran and the United States continue to mount. $Given the varied succession processes, the landscape of the Middle East also depends heavily on the sequence of Sistani’s and Khamenei’s deaths. Because there is no formal process to replace Sistani, his passing is likely to create a vacuum in Iraq and provide Iran with an opportunity to expand its influence. However, if Khamenei passes away first, his successor will be appointed quickly but may be incapable of handling Iran’s turbulent domestic politics. The Issue Brief assesses prospective successors to Sistani and Khamenei, considers the domestic and foreign policy implications of each, and discusses the Middle East’s prospects given different scenarios of succession.
主题	Iran ; Iraq ; Politics & Diplomacy ; Arabic ; English
URL	https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/after-sistani-and-khamenei-looming-successions-will-shape-the-middle-east/
来源智库	Atlantic Council (United States)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/345769
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abbas Kadhim,Barbara Slavin. After Sistani and Khamenei—looming successions will shape the Middle East. 2019.

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