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This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix going forward. Scenarios were calculated using the NEXANT world gas model (WGM) integrated in ERIRAS modeling information complex SCANER. The calculations in the WGM are based on demand and potential production forecast in each gas producing and/or gas consuming country of the world up to 2040. The paper continues with a discussion of the (limitations of the) most often debated alternatives to Russian gas. The authors conclude that remarkable little changes in the European natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions Russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the EU.

The full study is available here [PDF]