全球智库信息集成服务系统

This report develops a conceptual model of policy sequencing rooted in climate economics and political science as a pathway to achieving the aspirations of the Paris climate agreement. The ideas are illustrated with examples from Germany and California.

A major outcome of the Paris climate agreement is the aspirational goal of greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality. How and through which policy pathways can this be realized? Economists stipulate dynamically cost-effective pathways with rising carbon prices over time. Yet pricing expands slowly in the face of various barriers, while some success is found in different policy trends. We outline a theory of change to overcome barriers to carbon pricing with path dependency and sequencing at its core. The mechanism involves second-best policies that compromise on cost-effectiveness at earlier stages to pave the way for more stringent and cost-effective policies later. We observe California and Germany to identify how policy barriers have been addressed in a sequential manner. We hypothesize that long-term success hinges on building coalitions, reducing costs, avoiding bad policy lock-ins, and other dynamic factors. We hope this framework stimulates a new research agenda of practical value.