G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型论文
Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change
Roger M. Cooke
发表日期2014-04-25
出版年2014
页码DP 14-11
语种英语
摘要

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed.

主题Climate Change ; Risk and Uncertainty
子主题Risk Analysis ; Uncertainty ; Uncertainty Quantification and Modeling
URLhttp://www.rff.org/research/publications/deep-and-shallow-uncertainty-messaging-climate-change
来源智库Resources for the Future (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/41299
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Roger M. Cooke. Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change. 2014.
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