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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change | |
Roger M. Cooke | |
发表日期 | 2014-04-25 |
出版年 | 2014 |
页码 | DP 14-11 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed. |
主题 | Climate Change ; Risk and Uncertainty |
子主题 | Risk Analysis ; Uncertainty ; Uncertainty Quantification and Modeling |
URL | http://www.rff.org/research/publications/deep-and-shallow-uncertainty-messaging-climate-change |
来源智库 | Resources for the Future (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/41299 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roger M. Cooke. Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change. 2014. |
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