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Fuel economy regulations lower the cost of driving and can result in more miles traveled—what is known as the rebound effect. We estimate the magnitude of the rebound effect expected from new fuel economy regulations on medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

Economic theory suggests that fuel economy standards induce a rebound effect, which is the increase in energy use caused by lower per-mile fuel costs due to the regulation. Despite a large literature on this effect for passenger vehicles, few studies attempt to estimate the rebound effect for heavy-duty trucks. We estimate the magnitude of the rebound effect for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles using a pooled cross section of detailed truck-level microdata that spans 25 years. Our estimates imply an average rebound effect of 30 percent for tractor trailers and 10 percent for vocational vehicles. We also estimate the effect of economic activity on truck miles driven and find that both tractor trailers and vocational vehicles respond less than proportionally to economic activity; we estimate an aggregate truck miles elasticity with respect to gross state product of 60 percent for tractor trailers and 82 percent for vocational vehicles. These estimates taken together suggest that the agencies regulating US trucks likely overestimate projected long-run fuel savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions resulting from the standards.