全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	论文
	Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis
	Yonas Alem; Mathilde Maurel; Katrin Millock
发表日期	2016-08-30
出版年	2016
页码	EfD DP 16-23
语种	英语
摘要	There is solid scientific evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will suffer a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase the incidence of displacement migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the ex-ante and ex-post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability - measured by the coefficient of variation of rainfall - has a strong positive impact on the probability of sending a migrant. This implies that households engage in migration to cope with risk ex-ante. We also find evidence suggesting that rainfall shocks have ex-post impact on households' likelihood of migration, but the effect is not statistically significant at the conventional levels. Instrumental variables prohibit regression results also show that controlling for endogeneity of income using a credible instrument is important to identify its impact on the decision to send a migrant. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming to improve the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change.
主题	International
子主题	Africa ; Climate Adaptation
URL	http://www.rff.org/research/publications/migration-adaptation-strategy-weather-variability-instrumental-variables
来源智库	Resources for the Future (United States)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/41465
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yonas Alem,Mathilde Maurel,Katrin Millock. Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis. 2016.