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Not since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I has the Middle East been wracked with so much change, violence, and uncertainty.
When long building pressures erupted with the so-called “ Arab Spring” in 2011, Henry Kissinger presciently said that it was only “scene one of act one of a five act play”. Before we can venture even a guess about the next scene or act and how American policymakers might approach it, it’s necessary to step back and examine the region in its broader setting.

John McLaughlin was Deputy Director of the CIA from 2000 to 2004. He now teaches at the Johns Hopkins University and conducts research for the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies of Washington.

Article published in Politique étrangère, vol. 81, No. 2, Summer 2016.