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来源类型 | Book/Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
India's Trade Policy Choices | |
Sandra Polaski | |
发表日期 | 2008-01-29 |
出版年 | 2008 |
语种 | 英语 |
概述 | India would be six times better off under a multilateral trade agreement in the WTO’s Doha Round than from individual free trade agreements with the EU, United States, or China. |
摘要 | IMGXYZ1118IMGZYXIndia would be six times better off under a multilateral trade agreement in the WTO’s Doha Round than from individual free trade agreements with the EU, United States, or China, contends a new report from the Carnegie Endowment. However, by lifting agricultural tariffs under a Doha agreement, India could lose more than it gained if prices of key commodities such as rice and wheat continue to swing sharply as they have in the past. In India’s Trade Policy Choices, Carnegie Senior Associate Sandra Polaski and co-authors A. Ganesh-Kumar and Manoj Panda of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Scott McDonald of Oxford Brookes University, and Sherman Robinson of the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, simulate the potential outcomes for India’s economy of a Doha agreement and potential free trade agreements with the EU, United States, and China. Key Conclusions: • India’s economy would grow most under a Doha agreement, although the gains would add a very modest 0.25 percent to the economy. Free trade pacts with China or the United States would produce even smaller gains. An agreement with the EU, India’s largest trading partner, would have a slightly negative overall impact on India’s economy. In announcing the report, Polaski said, “The results of the study indicate that continued trade liberalization, particularly at the multilateral level, can contribute to India’s growth and development. “However it must be recognized that the potential gains are modest and the risks are not insignificant. The simulations of world agricultural price swings demonstrate that countries like India need to preserve their ability to use tariffs and safeguards to shield key farm crops or risk deeper poverty. Balancing the defensive interests of India’s poor households with the quest for improved efficiency and market opportunities will require careful trade negotiations.” She added “It would be necessary for India and similarly situated countries to have the flexibility to respond to agricultural price shocks based on conditions at the time of the shock, rather than having rigid or arbitrary disciplines imposed in advance.” She also suggested that the Indian government would likely find more success in creating jobs through stimulation of domestic demand rather than through export-led growth. Click on the icon above for the full text of this Carnegie report. A limited number of print copies are available. About the Authors A. Ganesh-Kumar is an associate professor at the Indira Gandhi Institute Scott McDonald is a professor in the Department of Economics and Manoj Panda is a professor at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Sherman Robinson is a professor in the Economics Department, University |
主题 | India ; Economy ; Global Trade ; Foreign Policy |
URL | https://carnegieendowment.org/2008/01/29/india-s-trade-policy-choices-pub-19871 |
来源智库 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/416695 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sandra Polaski. India's Trade Policy Choices. 2008. |
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