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Since the launch of a new round of trade negotiations in 2001, members of the World Trade Organization have been struggling to reach a deal that can deliver significant benefits for all member countries.  Many developing countries, such as China, are poised to take advantage of global trade liberalization, and many of the millions of poor in those countries could benefit as a result.  But it is less clear how to ensure that the poorest countries will also benefit, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which saw their share of global exports drop from 6% to 2% in the last two decades. 

Could any trade deal really deliver on the promise of development for Africa?  Advocates of the Round routinely cite studies showing millions of people in these countries will be lifted out of poverty, while opponents find numbers to the contrary.  In a new web commentary, Katherine Vyborny examines the evidence on Doha’s implications for Africa, showing that a range of models built by different economists agree on the fundamentals: a Doha round with no special provisions for the poorest will hurt Africa; but no round would be a loss as well.  Sub-Saharan African countries would benefit from a development-oriented round that includes measures such as full duty-free quota-free access for their exports.

The slow progress in the “Doha Development Round” of trade talks does not mean the round will fail: previous rounds have taken longer and floundered often before succeeding.  But it is also clear that the Doha Round must deliver development benefits in order to succeed politically – developing countries have taken a seat at the negotiating table as never before.  To revive the WTO negotiations and benefit the world’s poor, the U.S. should offer this development package and negotiate a true Doha Development Round.