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来源类型 | Policy Contribution |
规范类型 | 简报 |
The implications of no-deal Brexit: is the European Union prepared? | |
Guntram B. Wolff | |
发表日期 | 2019-01-14 |
出版年 | 2019 |
语种 | 英语 |
概述 | The author, based on a note written for the Bundestag EU Committee, is exploring the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the EU, assessing preparations on the EU side and providing guidance on the optimal strategy for the EU, depending on the choices made by the United Kingdom. |
摘要 | This Policy Contribution, based on a note written for the Bundestag EU Committee, explores the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the European Union and assesses preparations on the EU side. It also provides guidance on the optimal strategy for the EU, depending on the choices made by the United Kingdom. Overall, a no-deal Brexit would be disruptive in the short-term:
The effects of a no-deal Brexit in the medium to long term are difficult to assess. A no-deal Brexit would lead to deterioration in long-term political relationships, which would make a new trade arrangement and other cooperation in the future less likely. A specific concern is the situation in Ireland, which is also the most contentious part of the Brexit negotiation. If the EU wants to protect the integrity of its single market, a no-deal Brexit will mean the imposition of customs controls on the Irish border. The European Commission’s draft legislation aims to preserve the peace process, but a hard border could provoke renewed violence. The overall strategic direction the EU should take would be to increase the cost to the UK of a no-deal Brexit as much as possible (respecting ethical limits), while showing more flexibility over the political declaration and possibly the withdrawal deal itself. |
主题 | European Macroeconomics & Governance |
关键词 | brexit Brexit negotiations EU single market NO-deal Brexit |
URL | https://bruegel.org/2019/01/the-implications-of-no-deal-brexit-is-the-european-union-prepared/ |
来源智库 | Bruegel (Belgium) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/429792 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guntram B. Wolff. The implications of no-deal Brexit: is the European Union prepared?. 2019. |
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PC-2019-02-140119-co(178KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | ![]() 浏览 | ||
PC-2019-02-140119.pd(302KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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