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来源类型 | REPORT |
规范类型 | 报告 |
Considerations in Dynamic Scoring and Macroeconomic Modeling | |
Anna Chu | |
发表日期 | 2015-03-10 |
出版年 | 2015 |
语种 | 英语 |
概述 | Since the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation are being forced to adopt dynamic scoring, they should consider the most recent credible economic research on tax cuts, inequality, and growth. |
摘要 | Under the simple rules of math, two plus two equals four. But House Republican congressional leaders’ new fuzzy rules for evaluating the budgetary impact of legislation blur the lines of simple math. Under their new rules, two plus two may soon equal five. As an opening salvo for the 114th Congress, in a “largely party-line vote of 234-172,” Republicans in the House adopted a rules package that included a provision asking the Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, and the Joint Committee on Taxation, or JCT, to use so-called dynamic scoring in their evaluation of a proposed legislation’s budgetary impact. Under the rule, CBO and JCT would have to arrive at one estimate of the economic impact of a proposed bill—a difficult and uncertain endeavor—and factor that into a final score of the bill’s budgetary impact. This differs from current practice, where CBO and JCT provide, when requested, a range of estimates based on different assumptions and models of how the economy would respond to policy changes. Compared with dynamic scoring, this range of estimated impacts provides lawmakers with more information about the possible impacts of a proposed policy. By requiring CBO and JCT to whittle down the range of macroeconomic estimates into one number for a final score, the rule would make CBO and JCT pick and choose which assumptions and models count in the macroeconomic analysis. If one of the assumptions is that a boost in the economy may lead to more people working and paying more taxes, then that additional tax revenue received by the government would offset the official cost of a bill. Thus, on paper, the proposal would have a lower official cost because of possibly uncertain and unrealistic assumptions that the proposal would generate economic growth. This move would make it easier for policymakers to enact more tax cuts based on the conservative trickle-down mythology that tax cuts for the rich grow the economy. It is especially telling that the rule introduced by House Republican leaders would “for all practical purposes … apply almost exclusively to tax legislation.” It seems that since conservatives cannot get tax cuts through the front door, they are trying to get them through the side door instead. CBO and JCT should not be forced to undertake dynamic scoring. But since the House passed the new rules package, responsible lawmakers should work with CBO; CBO’s new director, Keith Hall; and JCT to ensure that the so-called dynamic scoring process is not hijacked as a vehicle to sell the conservative trickle-down mythology. Specifically, CBO and JCT should consider the following two issues:
Anna Chu is the Director of the Middle-Out Economics project at the Center for American Progress. |
主题 | Economy |
URL | https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2015/03/10/107520/considerations-in-dynamic-scoring-and-macroeconomic-modeling/ |
来源智库 | Center for American Progress (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/435985 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anna Chu. Considerations in Dynamic Scoring and Macroeconomic Modeling. 2015. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
DynamicScoring-repor(1767KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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