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On April 16, the Turkish people will vote on a package of constitutional amendments passed by Turkey’s Parliament on January 21, 2017, that greatly expands the powers of the presidency.

If the package passes the nationwide referendum, it will broaden and deepen the de jure powers of the presidency, giving it authority over all executive branch institutions, including the military. It would give the president the power to appoint key senior-level judges and other judicial officials without parliamentary—or any other—review. It would abolish the post of prime minister, with the president assuming the powers of that office. And it would allow, under certain circumstances, the president to serve three terms totaling just short of 15 years.

In short, Turkey’s long-standing parliamentary political system would be transformed into something more appropriately called a presidential system, in which an “executive presidency”¹ amasses unprecedented power in the hands of one man. The referendum will take place amid the ongoing erosion of Turkish democratic institutions, freedom of speech, and political rights. Moreover, the referendum campaign and the vote itself will be held under some of the least democratic circumstances imaginable—namely, emergency rule.

The following are among the other significant features of the proposed new presidential system that will be explored in the main body of this report:

• The president could shape the executive branch as he chooses, as long as Parliament approves his budget for that purpose, and could hire or fire all senior officials as he chooses, without parliamentary or other review.
• Bypassing Parliament, he would also be able to issue decrees with the force of law in many areas of Turkish life, particularly regarding economic and social concerns—unless Parliament acted to override the decrees.
• Contrary to long-standing tradition, the president could be a member, even the leader, of a political party, casting aside the notion of the presidency as a symbol of national unity set above political parties.
• When the president’s party holds a parliamentary majority, checks on presidential power would be virtually nonexistent.
• When the president’s party does not hold a majority, Turkish parties and institutions would have to cooperate or risk government gridlock, even chaos—the very conditions that current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party, better known in Turkish as AKP, government claim that the new system would prevent.
• Turkey would be one of the few countries in the world to sever fully the electoral tie between the head of government and the legislature; the United States, Indonesia, and the Republic of Cyprus are among the other rare examples.
• However, Turkey would be the only country in which the head of government and the legislature could force one another into early elections and in which both would always have to face election on the same day as the other; the president would have the upper hand in this respect, as he could call elections at any time, whereas Parliament would need to muster a three-fifths majority.
• Parliament would lose some important powers under the new amendments, though its legislation would still take precedence over presidential decrees.
• Voters would be able to cast two meaningful votes instead of one—one for a head of government, the president, and one for Parliament—and if enough voters split their tickets, Turkey could end up with a president of one party and a Parliament controlled by another.²

On paper, the new structure would create a presidency with vast powers, but—depending particularly on whether the president’s party controls Parliament—it would be somewhat less powerful than the unfettered, one-man dictatorship widely expected by Erdoğan’s critics and possibly craved by Erdoğan himself.

Voters will go to the polls knowing that a “yes” vote will significantly increase the president’s already considerable power, fortify Turkey’s growing reputation for authoritarianism, and further alienate Turkey from its NATO allies.

President Erdoğan first spoke favorably of a strong presidential system shortly after becoming prime minister in 2003 and began to advocate for it ever more insistently starting with his second prime ministry re-election campaign in 2011.³ At that point, his determination to run in Turkey’s first-ever direct presidential election—in which the Turkish people, rather than the Parliament, would choose the president—in 2014 was already clear. Elected in August 2014 to a presidency already informally strengthened by its direct electoral mandate, Erdoğan intensified his advocacy to further bolster presidential powers. Moreover, he built a de facto presidential system, making clear that he—not his hand-picked successor as prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu—was the top decision-maker in Turkey and in the AKP.

In the campaign leading up to the June 2015 parliamentary election, the AKP championed a presidential system, with Erdoğan leading the charge. When the party failed to win a parliamentary majority in the subsequent vote, many blamed the loss on the AKP’s focus on the presidential system and on Erdoğan’s high-profile, partisan role.⁴

With no parliamentary majority having emerged following the June vote, Erdoğan called for new elections to be held in November 2015.⁵ In the campaign for these “do over” elections, conducted amid the resumption of fighting in Turkey’s long-running Kurdish conflict, the AKP de-emphasized the presidential system, and Erdoğan kept an unusually low profile. The AKP then regained its outright parliamentary majority, allowing Erdoğan to resume his de facto empowered presidency.

Despite the win, the AKP majority that emerged from the November election—317 seats, roughly 58 percent of the 550-seat Parliament—was insufficient directly to pass a constitutional amendment, which requires 367 votes in Parliament, or to put proposed constitutional changes to a referendum, which requires 330 votes in Parliament.⁶ With the other three parties in Parliament openly opposed to a presidential system, Erdoğan’s hopes for formalizing a strong executive presidency appeared distant.

Then came the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016. In its immediate aftermath, Erdoğan’s popularity temporarily soared in the polls and, for the first time, surveys showed a narrow majority of the public in favor of a presidential system.⁷ The failed coup also brought emergency rule to Turkey, making Erdoğan a virtual dictator, able to rule by decree with little reference to Parliament or the courts. Whatever one thought of his decisions, the coup and subsequent state of emergency left Erdoğan as Turkey’s unassailable leader, perhaps making a formalized presidential system seem more familiar, or even inevitable.⁸

Some three months after the coup attempt, the prospect of a constitutional change to strengthen the presidency re-emerged.⁹ On October 11, 2016, in a surprising speech to his parliamentary group, Devlet Bahçeli—the long-time leader of Turkey’s right-wing Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP—called for a referendum on a presidential system. The current situation amounted to a de facto presidential system, he said, so the issue should be brought before the people in a referendum simply for the sake of putting it to rest.¹⁰ A week later, he went further, implying he could, in fact, endorse amendments based on a presidential system, provided that the MHP’s “principles and sensitivities” were taken into account.¹¹

Bahçeli had made opposition to a presidential system the centerpiece of both of the MHP’s 2015 parliamentary campaigns, so his October 11 speech electrified the political environment and visibly galvanized Erdoğan and his circle into action. With 40 seats in Parliament, the MHP could potentially provide the votes that the AKP needed to bring constitutional amendments to a referendum, and the AKP pounced on the opportunity.

The AKP’s comfort in working with the MHP was buoyed by two factors. First, the two parties had worked together as de facto partners during the brief period when the AKP lacked a parliamentary majority in 2015, between the June and November elections.¹² Second, MHP leader Bahçeli seemingly owed Erdoğan a favor. Earlier in 2016, Bahçeli had faced a party revolt over the MHP’s poor performance in the 2015 elections. The MHP rebels sought to hold a party congress that would almost certainly have led to Bahçeli’s ouster from the party leadership. Bahçeli resisted in the courts and, for a time, legal confusion prevailed as different judges gave conflicting rulings as to whether the MHP must allow a party congress. Correctly or not, a widely shared perception emerged that the judges who ruled in Bahçeli’s favor did so at Erdoğan’s behest and that Bahçeli owed his job to Erdoğan’s intervention in the judicial system.¹³ Events following the July 15 coup attempt seemed to sustain this hypothesis, as at least one judge who ruled against Bahçeli and in favor of the party congress was purged, while judges and members of the Supreme Election Board who had supported Bahçeli’s side in the dispute survived, seemingly certifying their pro-Erdoğan credentials.¹⁴

By late October, Erdoğan and the AKP had produced a schematic draft—probably well in the works before October 11—and begun to negotiate it with the MHP.¹⁵ As noted, the AKP has 317 parliamentarians, but one of them, as speaker of Parliament, was precluded from voting. Thus, the AKP needed votes from at least 14 MHP parliamentarians in order to reach the 330-vote level—60 percent in the 550-seat Parliament—in order to win passage and set up a referendum. The rest of the parliamentarians—all members of the secularist, center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the Kurdish-rights-focused Peoples’ Democracy Party, or HDP—were presumed to be staunch opponents of the presidential system.¹⁶

A 21-article amendments package was formally introduced in Parliament on December 10. The entire AKP parliamentary caucus sponsored the bill that introduced the amendments. Per prior arrangement, MHP parliamentarians did not co-sponsor.¹⁷

The Parliamentary Constitution Committee began consideration of the package on December 20 and approved it on January 3, 2017; the committee made only marginal changes, including the elimination of three noncritical articles, reducing the size of the package to 18 articles.¹⁸

Following committee approval, Bahçeli made clear that he would both vote for the amendments package in Parliament and, presuming passage there, support its passage in the national referendum.¹⁹

Full parliamentary debate began on January 9, 2017, and was initially expected to last a month. Instead, plenary debate and voting were completed in 13 days, thanks to a rigorous process imposed by AKP parliamentary leaders. According to one source, Parliament spent 129 hours and 12 minutes debating and voting—approximately 10 hours per day.²⁰ Per parliamentary practice, members voted twice on each of the 18 articles and then once on the entire package. The timing of the votes was nontraditional, however, with most of them taking place late at night, many well past midnight.²¹

Opposition members of Parliament, or MPs, vigorously protested the limited time for consideration of such a significant set of amendments. The opposition was further enraged when the rule requiring secret voting on constitutional amendments was repeatedly violated, allowing AKP leaders to make sure their members were voting “correctly.”²² Fights broke out repeatedly in Parliament, with some drawing blood. In one case, a CHP parliamentarian was wrestled to the ground, her prosthetic arm ripped from her shoulder.²³ Adding to the emotion of the proceedings was the absence of the HDP, the 47 remaining members of its parliamentary delegation boycotting in protest of the early November arrest of the other 12 members on terrorism-related charges.²⁴

On January 21, the vote on final passage garnered 339 “yes” votes, just nine over the required threshold.²⁵ Assuming all 316 eligible AKP MPs voted “yes,” that meant they were joined by only 23 of the 39-person MHP caucus, with 16 MHP MPs refusing to join their party leader in supporting the measure. The MHP caucus had shrunk from 40 to 39 members in mid-November with the party’s expulsion of Ümit Özdağ, a rival and bitter critic of Bahçeli’s and a vocal opponent of the presidential system. Özdağ remains in Parliament as an independent MP.²⁶ Thus, 17 members of the MHP’s originally 40-MP caucus apparently voted against the package.

The votes for final passage were perhaps a bit fewer than expected, as the 36 article-by-article votes fell that low in only one instance—albeit on arguably the most important article, the one listing the president’s proposed powers. The other 35 votes all hit the 340 mark, with most in the 340–343 range.²⁷

Following the emotional parliamentary sessions and votes, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu announced that he would appeal the vote to the Constitutional Court on the basis that it had not been conducted in the required secret manner. Little was expected from this case, however, and Kılıçdaroğlu ultimately decided not to follow through with it.²⁸

A referendum on the package will be held April 16.²⁹ Turkey will almost certainly still be under emergency rule,³⁰ as has been the case since July 21, 2016, and this is likely to skew the vote—expected to be close—toward “yes.” Indeed, there are already reports of police interference targeting those campaigning against the amendments.³¹

The following section highlights the most important changes proposed in the amendments package, examines their likely implications for future Turkish governance, and considers some of the unexpected ways in which they could possibly play out. It is not, however, an exhaustive review of every change proposed in the 18-article package.

One school of thought contends that the details of the amendments make little difference, as President Erdoğan intends to govern as an authoritarian regardless of what the law says; that he has ignored or manipulated constitutional practice in the past;³² and that he will do so again. While there is merit to this argument, the analysis below treats the contents of the amendments package seriously, without questioning whether implementation would indeed follow the letter of the proposed laws.

There are at least three good reasons for taking the text seriously. First, the amendments provide insight, however inexact, into Erdoğan’s conception of a presidential system, the MHP’s bottom-line requirements, and both Erdoğan’s and the MHP’s sense of what the Turkish electorate would find acceptable. Second, should the amendments package pass, its terms may apply for many years beyond the Erdoğan presidency. The current constitution came into force more than 34 years ago; although it has been repeatedly amended, most of its original provisions still apply. Third, and finally, there remains the possibility that the new rules indeed will be scrupulously observed by all parties, including the president.

Enhancing presidential power

Even prior to passage in a referendum, the amendments package represents a path-breaking development for Turkey and a triumph for Erdoğan. With the package, Erdoğan has taken a significant step toward realizing his goal of a strong presidential system of government, moving Turkey away from the parliamentary system that has ruled it since 1950, with the exception of periodic military rule.³³ Turgut Özal and Süleyman Demirel—like Erdoğan, former prime ministers subsequently elevated to the presidency—each advocated “a presidential system,” but neither developed a specific proposal, much less had it introduced and passed in Parliament.³⁴ Actual passage of Erdoğan’s amendments package in a public referendum would be historic and mark a dramatic change in Turkey’s system of governance.

Erdoğan has often spoken of introducing a presidential system in the context of a new constitution. The goal of a new constitution has thus far eluded Erdoğan, but the amendments package would have a transformative impact on the old constitution.

As it stands, the package consists of 18 measures, or articles, that revise or repeal 76 articles, or 43 percent, of the 177 articles in the Turkish Constitution.³⁵ Most of these changes serve the purpose of enhancing the president’s power. In that regard, the four changes that most dramatically alter Turkey’s long-standing system of governance are as follows:

• Abolition of the prime ministry. The president would absorb all current responsibilities and prerogatives of the prime minister, thus becoming head of government as well as head of state. This is the most significant structural change proposed in the amendments package and the one from which many of the others flow. The president would retain and add significantly to the substantial powers already accorded to him under the current constitution.³⁶
• Presidential power of decree. The most significant new power the proposed amendments would accord the executive branch—that is, beyond those already inherent in either the presidency or the prime ministry—is the president’s right to issue a decree—kararname—with the force of law. One might have expected the package to include an unlimited power of decree for the president, as is the case under the state of emergency currently in force in Turkey. In fact, the president’s decree power is not unlimited under the proposed amendments—the limits are discussed in the next section—but it is considerable. In the absence of parliamentary action, the president would have wide scope to issue decrees with force of law on social, economic, and even political issues.
• A party-based presidency. Under the proposed system, the president can be a member or leader of a political party—a major break from Turkish tradition. Presently, the president is required to resign from his party upon taking office and expected to remain neutral and above party in the conduct of his office.³⁷ Erdoğan particularly values this change to a party-affiliated presidency and has long pushed for it. It would formalize the current, de facto situation in which Erdoğan all but openly identifies with, and dominates, the AKP.³⁸
• Reinforced presidential control of the judiciary. The amendments package would reinforce the president’s growing control of the judiciary, potentially to the point of total dominance. His influence would be exercised most directly on the two most important judicial bodies: the High Council of Judges and Prosecutors—in Turkish, Hâkimler ve Savcılar Yüksek Kurulu, or HSYK—which governs the judicial profession in Turkey (see text box below); and the Constitutional Court, which is both the interpreter of the Constitution and the court that tries alleged crimes committed by senior officials. Presidential appointments to the judiciary would not be reviewable by parliament or any other body.³⁹

Under the proposed amendments, the president would appoint six of the 13 HSYK members and parliament would appoint the other seven. If the president’s party controlled Parliament, therefore, the president could end up, through his influence over the party, effectively appointing all 13 members.

Under the current system, the HSYK has 22 members, with only four appointed by the president, two appointed by the prime minister, and the remaining 16 elected by bodies within the legal profession. Thus, this key body would cease to be primarily administered by the judiciary itself and would come fully under the sway of political appointees.⁴⁰

As the president already appoints the vast majority of Constitutional Court judges, his relationship to that court would be little altered by the new system. The main change is that the two slots on the court constitutionally reserved for military judges would be eliminated once the incumbents complete their terms or otherwise depart. As a result, the Constitutional Court would have only 15 judges, all civilian. As before, three would be appointed by Parliament, and the remaining 12 would be appointed by the president.

Thus, of the combined 28 members of the HSYK and the Constitutional Court, arguably the most important bodies in Turkey’s judicial system, the president would appoint 18 and Parliament would appoint 10 under the proposed system. With a majority in Parliament, the president could, in effect, appoint all 28 members. Meanwhile, the president would retain his current constitutional authority to appoint several other senior judges and prosecutors directly.⁴¹

Other key changes and continuities in the proposed system

Although perhaps less fundamental than the four changes in governance cited above, several other proposed changes related to the presidency also merit notice. These include:

Removing the president.⁴⁶ Under the current constitution, the president can be impeached only for “vatana ihanet,” or “high treason.”⁴⁷ A petition by one-third of all MPs is necessary to initiate this process; a vote by three-quarters of MPs is required for the president’s actual removal.

With the proposed amendments, the president would be liable for removal for a wider array of crimes, but the process of achieving his actual removal would be complicated and not fully in the hands of the Parliament.

The crimes for which a president could be removed under the proposal are the same as those that currently make a citizen ineligible to run for Parliament—bribery, corruption, theft, and the like.⁴⁸ Significantly, governance-related abuse of power does not seem to be a cause for removal.⁴⁹ Thus, it is not clear what recourse Parliament would have if the president were to refuse to implement its laws or abide by court decisions.

To pursue removal of a president, a majority of MPs would have to propose to open an investigation, or soruşturma, into an alleged crime. Following discussion lasting no more than a month, three-fifths of MPs would have to vote actually to open the investigation.⁵⁰ A commission of investigation would then be appointed, and, following the commission’s report, two-thirds of MPs would have to vote to send the president to the Supreme Court for trial.⁵¹ If convicted by the Supreme Court, the president would be removed from office.

Even after leaving office, a president would remain liable under this procedure, provided the crime investigated is alleged to have been committed during his term in office—meaning, it appears, only during his presidency. Crimes committed while serving in offices prior to becoming president do not seem to be covered by this provision—an important point given the corruption allegations made against then-Prime Minister Erdoğan in 2013.⁵²

Executive branch structure and appointments. The president would have the right to establish or eliminate ministries, as well as determine their authorities, responsibilities, and structure. The president would also make all executive branch personnel appointments—including “one or more” vice presidents, Cabinet ministers, and other senior officials—all without any review process.⁵³

Further civilianization. President Erdoğan has used his authority during the state of emergency following the coup attempt to strengthen his grip on the m