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Despite sharp disagreements within the Turkish public about the overall direction of the country and its political leadership, a comprehensive new public opinion study by the Center for American Progress finds broad consensus among Turks about the dimensions of Turkish national self-perception and the nation’s relationship to the rest of the world.

In the aftermath of the attempted military coup against the government in 2016, Turks remain deeply divided about the leadership, agenda, and vision of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Roughly half the Turkish population expresses displeasure with the current state of the nation’s economy and with Erdoğan’s overall tenure, as well as disapproves of the government’s response to the attempted coup. Roughly half the population feels the opposite.

At the same time, Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) clearly benefit from—and, arguably, have helped stoke—rising nationalist sentiment among much of the Turkish population. Compared with the more secular nationalism seen under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s presidency and earlier governments, this new nationalism is assertively Muslim; fiercely independent; distrusting of outsiders; and skeptical of other nations and global elites, which it perceives to hold Turkey back. Of course, Turkish nationalist thought has long focused on independence from foreign influence, and Turkish national identity has always been grounded in Islam. But religious rhetoric and symbolism, along with a prickly obsession with national sovereignty, have been elevated in the present nationalist wave, with individual attitudes often shaped by party affiliation. This nationalist wave is further characterized by deep, cross-party skepticism and distrust toward Syrian refugees, the United States, and Europe.

Balancing these more isolationist—or, at least, go-it-alone beliefs—many Turks also express deep pride in their country’s democratic reforms over the years and say that they are committed to democratic values and an open Turkey with freedom of worship and speech for all. The precise meaning of this support for democracy, and what it means for people of different political stripes, deserves further study. But CAP’s research finds that rhetorical support for democracy is a notable part of contemporary Turkish self-perceptions.

This mix of seemingly contradictory beliefs among Turks—simultaneously suspicious and inward-looking and open and pro-democratic—combined with sharp divisions over President Erdoğan, suggest that Turkish politics will remain unsettled and increasingly agitated in the years to come. Competing visions of Turkish nationalism may produce highly contentious and combative politics until new norms and leadership receive widespread public support. Whichever leader or party most successfully embodies and articulates this new nationalist spirit that combines Islam with self-determination and democracy could be well-positioned for success going forward.

The findings in this report are based on a 2,453-sample national poll in Turkey, conducted by the polling firm Metropoll from November 2 to November 12, 2017, using stratified sampling and weighting methods in 28 provinces. These provinces are based on the 26 regions of Turkey’s Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics system. The survey was conducted using face-to-face questioning with a margin error of 1.98 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. Metropoll was selected after a competitive search due to the company’s regular polling and historical data on similar issues.

The report first assesses the overall context for Turkish politics today. It then explores in detail Turkish beliefs about national identity and the most important values and ideas currently shaping the nation.

Examining the larger political and economic context, Turks are deeply divided along partisan and ideological lines regarding the overall direction of the country, the economy, and President Erdoğan’s job performance. A plurality of survey respondents—45 percent—say that the direction of Turkey is heading “for the worse,” compared with about one-third—34 percent—who believe that the direction is heading “for the better,” and another 17 percent who say that the direction is heading neither for the worse nor for the better.

As Figure 1 shows, these perceptions are almost entirely correlated with political affiliation. AKP voters surveyed are far more positive about the country’s direction than are voters from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), voters of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and voters from the leftist Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Political affiliation was determined by self-reported vote in the last general election, on November 1, 2015; this is the standard marker of party affiliation used throughout the report.

Sixty-three percent of AKP voters say Turkey’s direction is heading “for the better” and only 17 percent say it is heading “for the worse.” In contrast, 77 percent of CHP voters, 60 percent of MHP voters, and 83 percent of HDP voters say Turkey’s direction is heading “for the worse.”

These partisan divisions on the direction of the country matter much more than other demographic trends in Turkey. The survey finds little difference, for example, in perceptions of Turkey’s direction by gender, age, or education. Yet beliefs that things are getting worse in Turkey do grow steadily as household income increases.

Moving to the economy, these same partisan divisions emerge across numerous indicators. Overall, 46 percent of respondents say that their family’s living standards have “worsened” in the past year, compared with 27 percent who say they have “improved” and 25 percent who have experienced no change in living standards. Examining beliefs by party, 50 percent of AKP voters say their family’s living standards have improved, with 23 percent saying they have worsened.

On the other hand, 71 percent of CHP voters, 59 percent of MHP voters, and 81 percent of HDP voters surveyed report that their family’s living standards have worsened over the past year. Older voters report higher levels of worsening living standards than do younger ones, but patterns are fairly stable across other demographic lines such as education and income.

When asked, “How well, or how poorly, do you think our economy is managed these days?” a majority of respondents, 53 percent, believe that the economy is managed poorly, with only 37 percent saying that it is managed well. Again, voters of the president’s party overwhelmingly believe that the economy is managed well, at 68 percent, while voters of the opposition parties express divergent opinions. Ninety percent of CHP voters, 73 percent of MHP voters, and 89 percent of HDP voters believe the economy is managed poorly.

Questions about the prospects for Turkey’s economic future produce similar cleavages along party lines. Overall, 42 percent of respondents feel that the economic situation in Turkey will be worse one year from now, with 35 percent believing it will be better. As seen in Figure 3, 63 percent of AKP voters express optimism regarding the economy over the next year, compared with the 76 percent of CHP voters, 52 percent of MHP voters, and 81 percent of HDP voters who express pessimism.

The source of these divisions among Turks is abundantly clear when examining specific reactions to President Erdoğan. In terms of overall favorability, half of survey respondents rate Erdoğan favorably—33 percent very favorable and 17 percent somewhat favorable—while 45 percent rate him unfavorably, with 25 percent responded very unfavorable and 20 percent somewhat unfavorable. Continuing the patterns seen elsewhere, nearly 9 in 10 AKP voters, or 87 percent, hold favorable views of the president, while similar shares of CHP voters—86 percent—and 84 percent of HDP voters hold unfavorable views of him. Seventy-two percent of MHP voters rate him unfavorably as well.

The patterns are virtually identical when assessing public attitudes about President Erdoğan’s job performance while in office: More than 90 percent of the president’s party voters approve of his presidential duties, while 87 percent of CHP voters, 65 percent of MHP voters, and 86 percent of HDP voters disapprove. The survey reveals more interesting trends on Erdoğan’s job approval in other demographics, with men and higher-educated Turks more disapproving of his tenure than are women and lower-educated Turks.

Despite these stark internal divisions about President Erdoğan, the AKP retains a strong position ahead of the 2019 Turkish general elections. In a question asking people about their vote intention, the survey finds that if the election were held next Sunday, the AKP would capture 49 percent of the overall vote—with undecided voters distributed proportionally—and the CHP would get 24 percent. This is virtually identical to what these parties received in two of the past three parliamentary elections—in the CHP’s case, in each of the past three elections. None of the other minor parties currently would pass the 10 percent threshold for seats, thus further strengthening the AKP’s position. The MHP and the HDP both currently poll at about 9 percent, with Meral Akşener’s new party pulling around 7 percent of the vote.

The splintered nature of the opposition in Turkey gives the AKP a marked advantage in the upcoming elections. Barring consolidation of parties or strategic voting for a main opposition force, the president and his party will remain in a solid position for victory in 2019.

As with other political and economic issues today, this study finds stark disagreement over the government’s response to the coup attempt—and the motivations behind the clampdown in the attempt’s aftermath.

When asked, “Do you approve of the government’s response to the attempted coup?” roughly half of the Turkish public—49 percent—responded “yes,” with almost 4 in 10, or 39 percent, saying “no” and the remainder offering either no assessment or ambivalence. Approval of the government’s response is heavily split by party leaning, with 80 percent of AKP voters approving of the response and 70 percent of CHP voters, 51 percent of MHP voters, and 81 percent of HDP voters reporting that they do not approve of the government’s response. Educational divides exist on this question, with a majority—53 percent—of Turks with a secondary school education or lower approving of the response, compared with slight pluralities of high school graduates and college-educated Turks disapproving. It is worth noting that many of the AKP and MHP voters who expressed disapproval of the coup response said in response to a further question that they felt the government “had not done enough in response to the attempted coup.”

Patterns are virtually identical on a question related to the force of the response to the attempted coup. The survey asked, “As you may know, there have been recent crackdowns on journalists, intellectuals, and other activists by the Turkish government. In general, do you think these actions by the government are appropriate or inappropriate?” Respondents were split in half: 44 percent say these crackdowns were appropriate and 44 percent say they were inappropriate, with the remainder not offering an opinion.

Seventy-eight percent of AKP voters believe the crackdowns on journalists, intellectuals, and other activists are appropriate, while 85 percent of CHP voters, 59 percent of MHP voters, and 83 percent of HDP voters view them as inappropriate. Reactions to the crackdowns were not divided by other demographic indicators.

Echoing these findings, Turks diverge on the perceived rationale motivating the government’s continuing crackdowns. We asked respondents whether they think the primary reason for the government’s actions against journalists, intellectuals, and activists is “because the Turkish government believes these people are a threat to the Turkish state and its people,” or if it is “because the government is trying to eliminate and intimidate critical voices.” By a 42 percent-to-39 percent margin, Turks overall believe that the actions are based on a legitimate threat rather than an attempt to get rid of critics.

Although overall responses fall expectedly along party lines, with AKP voters more supportive of the government’s stated rationale and opponents more in line with the notion that its motivations are based on a desire to intimidate others, there is notable dissent within each group from their respective party lines. For example, nearly one-fifth of AKP voters, or 18 percent, believe the government’s crackdowns are designed to eliminate critics rather than to deal with legitimate threats to the state—a higher percentage of dissent against the government than is evident from AKP members on other questions. At the same time, more than one-quarter of CHP voters—27 percent—and one-third of MHP voters, or 35 percent, believe the government is acting in response to real threats to Turkey and its people.

It is possible that these findings among AKP voters do not represent dissent against the government’s approach, but rather indicate that AKP voters believe that the government is trying to eliminate critics and that these voters do not have an issue with that