全球智库信息集成服务系统

The benefits of electric vehicles (EVs) are wide-ranging and well-documented. Electric vehicles have fewer tailpipe emissions than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, leading to public health benefits associated with better air quality;¹ they are also quieter.² Furthermore, they reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, which is beneficial for national security.³ Electric vehicles can have significantly lower fuel costs and total costs of ownership, compared with gasoline-powered vehicles.⁴ Importantly, they are one of the most promising ways of reducing carbon emissions from the transportation sector,⁵ which is the largest contributor to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.⁶

Although the electric vehicle market is growing, it comprises a small percentage of cars on the road. Issues such as initial cost, range, model availability, knowledge gaps, and the availability of charging infrastructure continue to inhibit vehicle deployment. Government has a strong interest to support the developing electric vehicle market and promote innovation in this sector. Yet progressive leaders who want to incentivize sector growth may not be aware of the existing policy options and, more importantly, of those policies’ effectiveness in actual electric vehicle deployment.

This report assesses policies that could be effective at increasing the share of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)—small vehicles that can be plugged in to a power source. First, it surveys national-level policies in the United States, Norway, and China. Then, it conducts a quantitative analysis of what policies have worked at the state level in the United States.

The report focuses on policies targeted at vehicles rather than charging infrastructure. Although many states have additional policies specific to charging infrastructure, in the analysis, these were not considered in depth due to the added scope and complexity of the issues. There is great anticipation regarding the role of forthcoming funds available to states through the Volkswagen Mitigation Trust (see text box below), which can complement existing state polices and help to build out charging infrastructure. Since a retrospective review is not yet possible, and the funds are available primarily for charging infrastructure, they also are not considered here.

While this report focuses on the policies targeting vehicles, it also finds that financial incentives for charging infrastructure are some of the most effective ways to influence the share of PEVs in a given state. Other key findings include:

• Excluding California, the zero-emission vehicle mandate is the best predictor of states with high plug-in electric vehicle market shares.
• Financial incentives for vehicles, such as rebates and tax credits, are very effective.
• Free high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane access is useful—but less so outside of California.
• On average, state government fleet acquisition requirements are poor predictors of government fleet market share; however, in some cases they have proven effective.
• Eliminating emissions testing fees or licensing fees does little to increase sales.
• Policies that are aimed at raising revenue for infrastructure by increasing licensing fees do so without inhibiting market growth.

As states take on an increased leadership role promoting electric vehicles, they should consider what policies put more of these vehicles on their roads.

“Electric vehicles” is a broad category that can mean different things in different situations. To avoid confusion, this report generally avoids using the term “electric vehicle.” When the term is used, it is intended to represent all vehicles that can run on some form of electric power. Figure 1 shows the different types of electric vehicles and some example models.

Vehicles

The first commercial electric vehicle hit U.S. streets in 1897, and, in the early 1900s, electric vehicles made up one-third of all vehicle sales.⁹ Concerns about battery range, coupled with the cheap availability of gasoline, led the ICE vehicle to dominate the market throughout the 20th century. However, electric vehicles could once again become the vehicles of choice in the United States.

This report focuses on the benefits of and policies related to the deployment of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which made a resurgence in U.S. markets during the early 2000s.¹⁰ PEVs can be charged in whole or in part by an off-board electric power source. This is distinct from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), which supplement an internal combustion engine with battery power—often charged through regenerative braking—but cannot be plugged in. The most popular HEV in the United States is the Toyota Prius.¹¹

Plug-in electric vehicles are further divided into plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs typically run on electricity for shorter ranges—currently up to about 40 miles—then switch over to a gasoline-powered ICE when the battery is depleted. BEVs run only on electricity; they typically travel up to 100 miles on a single charge, and high-end models can reach up to 250 miles.¹²

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)—another kind of electric vehicle distinct from PEVs—use an electric motor instead of an ICE to power the wheels; however, instead of plugging into the grid to recharge, FCEV storage tanks are filled with hydrogen gas, which generates electricity when combined with oxygen in the air. (see text box for more information)

Charging infrastructure

PEVs can be connected to the electricity grid and recharged through charging infrastructure—sometimes referred to as electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The types or levels of charging infrastructure are commonly defined as Level 1, Level 2, and direct current (DC) fast chargers. As battery technology improves, vehicles will be able to go farther on a single charge.

All commercially available PEVs can generally use the same Level 1 and Level 2 charging equipment.¹⁷ Tesla has a proprietary plug and DC fast charger called the Supercharger, which can only be used by Tesla’s vehicles.¹⁸ Extreme fast chargers, operated at 800 volts, have also been proposed, though they are not yet commercially available.¹⁹ Adding these chargers could add a host of challenges to those already complicating the PEV market. For example, extreme fast chargers would need to be compatible with existing BEVs, and the high rate of energy transfer between charger and grid would require heavy cables and additional cybersecurity measures.²⁰

Large-scale PEV deployment is necessary to achieve significant carbon emissions reductions in the United States. Yet, despite a variety of national and subnational goals and commitments related to electric vehicle deployment, market growth has been slow.

From 2013 to 2017, the United States added 651,972 PEVs, reaching an overall market share of 1.19 percent in 2017.²¹ While there has generally been an increase in PEV sales over time, market growth has risen inconsistently on a month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter basis. (see Figure 2)

The electric vehicle market in the United States is largely driven by what happens in California. Despite representing just 12 percent of the country’s population, California typically represents more than half of PEV sales, 20 percent of HEV sales, and nearly 100 percent of FCEV sales in the United States.²² If California were a country, it would have ranked 3rd globally for PEV market share in 2016.²³

Outside of California, PEV sales vary widely by state. (see Figure 3) New York, Georgia, Washington, Florida, and Texas follow California in terms of the number of PEVs sold between 2013 and 2017. Most of the top PEV-selling states added more BEVs than PHEVs during this time period, but New York had more PHEVs than BEVs.

In terms of overall market share, California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Georgia, and Vermont stand out. (see Table 2) California, Washington, and Georgia rank highly for both total sales and overall market share. Considering government fleet vehicles alone, New York, Indiana, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island boast far higher market shares than their respective market shares for all vehicles combined. In most states, retail market share tends to be higher than the market share for government or private fleets—such as rental cars, taxis, and corporate cars. California leads in terms of overall, retail, and government market shares but not private fleets. The District of Columbia just exceeds California in terms of private fleet market share. Across all states, the private fleet market share of PEVs was less than 0.75 percent and less than the overall PEV market share in that state.

Although the PEV market is growing, PEVs still comprise a small percentage of cars on the road. Barriers to PEV adoption have prevented these vehicles from gaining large market share. These barriers include:²⁴

• Cost and range
• Model availability
• Knowledge gaps
• Charging infrastructure

In a survey of drivers in California and nine Northeast states, consumers cited—in rank order—lower purchase price and being able to drive 200 miles on a fully charged battery as the top two attributes that would make them more likely to consider purchasing or leasing a PEV. For Northeast drivers, the third choice was greater selection of plug-in vehicle models; for California drivers, it was seeing more plug-in vehicle charging stations in parking lots and shopping destinations.²⁵ As stated above, this report primarily focuses on barriers related to vehicles, but it also touches on charging infrastructure.

Cost and range

The average price of BEVs has risen slightly over the past several years.²⁶ As a relatively new technology, PEVs tend to be marketed as luxury vehicles first. The number of models available has risen, but most of these have been luxury models, and thus average list price continues to increase. Despite this, the list prices of PEV models and total costs of ownership—excluding financial incentives such as rebates or tax credits—are becoming more competitive with ICE vehicles.²⁷

While total costs are still high, as battery technology improves, both the cost per mile of electric range and the overall electric range are falling.²⁸ Between 2010 and 2016, the price of lithium-ion batteries fell nearly 75 percent, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that 2030 prices will be 93 percent below 2010 prices.²⁹ Few models have high all-electric ranges; of the 14 model year 2018 BEV models,³⁰ just four listed a range of more than 200 miles.³¹ Federal investment in battery technology has helped to increase the range and bring down the cost of batteries, so it is likely that the cost and range of vehicles will fall in the coming years.³²

Model availability

Consumers are used to a wide variety of vehicle models from which to choose. There are currently 18 PEV compact car models on the market, five standard four-wheel drive SUVs, one minivan model, and no trucks.³³ In 2016, pickup trucks—specifically the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado 1500, and GMC Sierra 1500—were the top-selling cars in 29 states.³⁴ A recent survey of light truck owners found that 15 percent would consider purchasing an all-electric light truck of the same make and model as their current vehicle.³⁵ Due to the lack of options in preferred model classes, it may be harder for automakers to encourage consumers to purchase PEVs, and some have argued that a variety of PEV model options is a prerequisite for market growth.³⁶

Major automobile manufacturers have committed to deploying many more PEV models in the coming years. For example, Volvo has committed to producing five BEVs by 2021.³⁷ General Motors plans to announce 20 new PEV or HEV models by 2023.³⁸ And Ford is planning to release 16 new BEV models and 24 new PHEV or HEV models by 2022.³⁹ BMW,⁴⁰ Honda,⁴¹ Hyundai,⁴² Mazda,⁴³ Mercedes-Benz,⁴⁴ Toyota,⁴⁵ Volkswagen/Audi,⁴⁶ and Nissan⁴⁷ have all committed in some form to investing in electric vehicles in the next decade.

Knowledge gaps

Surveys have repeatedly found that consumers have very little knowledge of PEVs and that increasing consumer awareness and familiarity is vital to supporting a robust PEV market.⁴⁸ The vast majority of consumers are unaware of how PEVs work, how much they cost, which models are available in their area, and what incentives—such as rebates and tax credits—may be available to them.⁴⁹ In one survey, 95 percent of respondents were not aware of state or local incentives available.⁵⁰ Despite making progress on issues of model and charging infrastructure availability, there has not been a corresponding increase in consumer awareness, even in pro-PEV California.⁵¹

“Electric vehicles” do not have a standard definition. The term “electric vehicle” can encompass PEVs and HEVs, just PEVs, or just BEVs. It can even be misunderstood as simply HEVs. There are many different levels of electrification and charging infrastructure, all with similar names, which contributes to confusion; and industry and policymakers alike have done little to standardize the language.

Even as a researcher devoted to finding this information, it was challenging for the author to determine the policies in each state and the opportunities available to consumers. There is no one-stop shop for consumers to easily determine the PEV incentives that apply to them. Depending on consumers’ income level, geographic location, and electric utility, they could be eligible for a host of incentives for vehicles and/or charging infrastructure. The variation in state laws and lack of clear information have left some consumers frustrated. For example, South Carolina offered PHEV tax credits until they were phased out in 2016, but several consumers mistakenly applied for credits for their BEVs.⁵² A recent study found that among dealerships in the top-10 PEV markets—excluding Tesla—unprepared staff, inconsistent practices, and limited inventory and information led dealers to push consumers toward non-PEV models they were more comfortable selling.⁵³

Charging infrastructure

Charging infrastructure is a necessary companion to PEVs, and barriers to charging infrastructure deployment also inhibit vehicle deployment. Currently, charging infrastructure is mostly in metropolitan areas in the Northeast and on the West Coast.⁵⁴ Unsurprisingly, this is similar to the vehicle market.

While the following section briefly describes some of those barriers, this report focuses its analysis on vehicle-specific policies as well as some policies aimed at funding the deployment of charging infrastructure. The Rocky Mountain Institute, Union of Concerned Scientists, and Citizens Utility Board provide more detailed information about charging infrastructure barriers and potential policy solutions.⁵⁵

Barriers to charging infrastructure deployment include:

• Cost of infrastructure: The cost of deploying charging infrastructure can be extremely expensive. (see Table 1) Because of the high capital costs, it can be difficult to incentivize charging infrastructure to be built in underserved or disadvantaged communities.
• Cost of charging: Since current utility rate structures generally are not designed to account for PEV charging, prices vary widely by state, locality, and even charger.
• Accessibility of charging: Charging infrastructure is generally relatively easy to obtain for interested single-family homeowners in homes with parking; however, renters and multiunit dwelling residents face more challenges. Renters are unlikely to invest in permanent infrastructure that remains if they leave; most multiunit dwelling owners do not yet see PEV charging as a profitable amenity; and lack of a dedicated parking space can make it challenging for homeowners or renters to plug in when needed.⁵⁶
• Utility investment: Utilities will need to be involved in charging infrastructure policy and, potentially, in deployment; yet current utility regulations could make it hard to generate utility investment. To justify the rate case for investments in charging infrastructure, for example, utilities may need to present complex cost-benefit analyses to regulators, which are complicated by uncertainty about market growth.⁵⁷ Regulators must trust future benefits of investment that may not be obvious at the time– something they may be unlikely to do.
• Interoperability: Vehicles and charging infrastructure are not all compatible with each other (see Table 1), and not all charging infrastructure networks use the same payment systems. Different charging providers accept credit cards, smart phones, cash, or other methods of payment. Some companies require a membership to access their infrastructure bef