全球智库信息集成服务系统

Authors’ note: The disability community is rapidly evolving to using identity-first language in place of person-first language. This is because it views disability as being a core component of identity, much like race and gender. Some members of the community, such as people with intellectual and developmental disabilities, prefer person-first language. In this report, the terms are used interchangeably.

Weeks after Hurricane Michael hit the Florida Panhandle last fall, leaders of the local recovery initiative estimated that as many as 20,000 residents of Bay County—more than 1 in 10 residents in the community of 185,000—were experiencing homelessness as a result of the storm.¹ Rental homes make up nearly three-fourths of the community’s damaged properties, and when residents scrambled to find new places to live, they discovered that rents had skyrocketed due to the sudden supply shortage.² The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has been slow to provide temporary homes—which are only offered for up to six months—and is approving very few extension requests for the small number of residents lucky enough to receive temporary housing.³ As a result, many residents are living in structures that are not fit for human habitation, including damaged homes and tents, while others wait and wonder what will happen when the clock runs out on their FEMA housing.⁴

The loss of housing in low-income communities due to extreme weather events such as Hurricane Michael, which killed 49 people and caused more than $25 billion in damage, further compounds the nationwide affordable housing crisis.⁵ Currently, there is a national shortage of 7 million affordable and available rental homes for extremely low-income renters.⁶ This shortage disproportionately affects communities of color and disabled people; Native American, Black,⁷ Hispanic, and disabled renters are all more likely to have extremely low incomes than renters who do not fall into these groups.⁸ And with affordable homes increasingly unavailable to renters, homelessness is on the rise. Families living paycheck to paycheck, trying to manage growing housing prices with a shortage of housing assistance, are left doubling up with friends or family, living in shelters, or stuck in unsheltered homelessness.⁹

Efforts to address the devastating impacts of natural disasters, which are increasing in both severity and frequency as a result of climate change, have thus far failed to consider the threat multiplier effect that more extreme weather and scarce supply of affordable housing has on frontline communities—those most likely to experience the worst and first climate impacts.¹⁰ Solutions that offer only temporary relief in the wake of disasters and/or are directed to wealthier households and homeowners will perpetuate the loss of affordable housing stock that, when damaged, is often demolished rather than rebuilt.¹¹ Moreover, they will increase displacement, housing poverty, and homelessness.¹²

As people across America become more concerned about climate change,¹³ local, state, and federal policymakers must be diligent in building more resilient and prepared communities. Equitable climate solutions must include investments in programs that reduce and prevent homelessness, increase housing affordability, and ensure that accessible, affordable homes are built to last using high-quality materials and innovative construction methods that can withstand both existing and future climate impacts.

These efforts must prioritize the areas that are most vulnerable to climate risks, including low-income neighborhoods and communities of color, which, due to historic housing discrimination and residential segregation, often are located in flood-prone areas; are exposed to disproportionately high heat, pollution, and other environmental risks; and have the fewest resources to prepare for and recover from extreme weather events. Specifically, policymakers must take the following actions to build strong, healthy, fair, accessible, and affordable communities that are resilient to future climate change impacts:

1. Support equitable evacuation and disaster recovery for all survivors

Congress should direct FEMA and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to coordinate to ensure equitable evacuation services and timely assistance that comply with all relevant necessary laws and standards, including the Fair Housing Act’s disparate impact standard.

2. Expand investments in federal rental assistance and homeless assistance programs

Congress should significantly expand funding for federal rental and homeless assistance programs to meet the needs of all low-income renters and prevent and end homelessness.

3. Prioritize equitable housing policies and just community development

State and local leaders should invest in equitable and resilient community development without displacement, prioritizing low-income communities to improve public health, safety, and livability among all communities.

4. Build resilient infrastructure

Federal and local leaders should invest in infrastructure that is built to last, including by improving the design and resilience of new and existing infrastructure.

5. Increase funding for disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies

Federal policymakers should substantially increase funding for mitigation and adaptation initiatives so that state and local leaders are equipped with the resources and knowledge they need to improve the resilience of their communities to the impacts of climate change.

This report provides background on the interrelated crises of homelessness and rising housing costs in the United States. It discusses how the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with inequities in the country’s disaster response systems, has disproportionate, hard-hitting impacts on frontline communities—including low-income individuals and people experiencing homelessness. Finally, the report discusses the five recommendations listed above in greater detail, laying out steps for policymakers at the local, state, and federal levels.

Families who rent homes in the United States increasingly struggle to find and afford housing.¹⁴ Rents have climbed steadily, outpacing wage growth for nearly 20 years.¹⁵ Of the country’s 43 million renter households in 2016, nearly half—or more than 20 million—spent more than 30 percent of their household income on rent; 11 million of these households were severely cost-burdened, spending more than half of their income on rent.¹⁶ There is not a single county, metropolitan area, or state in the country where a full-time worker earning the prevailing minimum wage can afford to rent a two-bedroom apartment.¹⁷ Workers of color and disabled workers are even less likely to be able to afford a home. Among full- and part-time workers, Black workers earn 25 percent less than their white colleagues and report higher instances of unfair hiring and promotion practices.¹⁸ In some instances, workers with disabilities can even be paid a subminimum wage.¹⁹

Federal rental assistance programs, including the Housing Choice Voucher Program, public housing, and project-based rental assistance, help more than 10 million people in more than 5 million households rent modest, affordable homes.²⁰ However, due to insufficient funding, less than 1 in 4 eligible low-income renter households actually receive assistance.²¹ These circumstances reflect the fact that there is a shortage of 7 million affordable and available rental homes for extremely low-income renters.²² This shortage is even more acute for people with disabilities, as less than 1 percent of all housing stock nationwide is wheelchair-accessible, and less than 5 percent is livable for people with moderate mobility disabilities.²³

The positive correlation between the share of income spent on rent and the rate of homelessness largely explains the recent nationwide increase in homelessness.²⁴ After decreasing steadily for six years thanks to federal coordination of programs by the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness and targeted investments in evidence-based strategies,²⁵ the population of people experiencing homelessness has grown for the past two years,²⁶ with people of color and disabled people both vastly overrepresented.²⁷ On a single night in January 2018, the population experiencing homelessness in the United States was more than half a million—comparable in size to the population of Albuquerque, New Mexico.²⁸ What is more, half of this population lives in just five states: California, New York, Florida, Texas, and Washington.²⁹ It is not coincidental that these same states contain 8 of the 10 most expensive metropolitan areas in the country.³⁰ This combination of high living costs and a lack of affordable housing only exacerbates the impacts of extreme weather events for the frontline communities struggling to find shelter in a changing climate.

Another contributor to homelessness is extreme weather; the five states listed above are also among the six most disaster-prone states in the United States and have experienced several billion-dollar weather and climate events since 2017.³¹ In 2018, for the first time, HUD’s Annual Homeless Assessment Report included the number of people experiencing homelessness who were sheltering in locations specifically for people displaced by presidentially declared natural disasters: 3,864.³² While the report did not specify in which states these people were sheltering, it is likely that they were displaced by any number of the devastating natural disasters that occurred during 2017—from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in the Gulf Coast to the wildfires in California.³³ In fact, from 2017 to 2018, homelessness in the greater Houston area grew by 15 percent, according to a report prepared for the Way Home Continuum of Care—a regional planning group that identifies community needs and coordinates housing and supportive services funding.³⁴ This increase occurred as Hurricane Harvey compounded the local affordable housing shortage by damaging almost 200,000 homes across Texas, nearly 2,000 of which were federally subsidized.³⁵ In Puerto Rico, where Hurricane Maria destroyed more than 70,000 homes,³⁶ it is hard to ascertain the total count of people who lost housing since nearly 130,000 residents left the island between July 2017 and July 2018, partly due to the storm.³⁷ Yet in one Puerto Rican town, Cataño, an astounding 60 percent of residents were experiencing homelessness following the storm.³⁸ These examples show how extreme weather is affecting low-income communities and people experiencing homelessness and signal a larger trend of worsening climate disasters across the United States.

Extreme weather events are growing in intensity and frequency

Since 1980, the United States has sustained 250 weather and climate disasters, with increasing frequency in recent years.³⁹ According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the total cost of these events has exceeded $1.7 trillion.⁴⁰ From 2016 through 2018, the United States experienced a total of 45 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, or an average of 15 events per year.⁴¹ This marks the highest annual average on record and more than double the annual average from 1980 through 2018—6.2 billion-dollar events per year, adjusted for inflation.

To put this into perspective, 2019 has already experienced six weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion, including two flooding events and four severe storms. The first severe storm, occurring in late February, blasted three regions of the country over the course of a weekend.⁴² In this same storm cycle, the South experienced tornadoes and flooding, while high-wind damage swept across the Ohio Valley region and the Northeast. Heavy rain followed, causing major flooding along parts of the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee rivers. This first storm cycle was shortly followed by the “bomb cyclone” in March, which brought further blizzard conditions and extreme flooding to the Midwest.

These recent billion-dollar disasters hit specific regions of the United States; however, a wide range of possible disasters—such as wildfires, flooding, hurricanes, and polar vortexes—is increasing in frequency and severity as a result of climate change and is bound to reach nearly all states. Extreme weather events have and will continue to transform where and how people live, as well as their overall quality of life.⁴³

The impacts of extreme weather on both natural and built systems have historically been considered in silos, with their needs often addressed by separate disaster response efforts.⁴⁴ In the past, disaster recovery planning has failed to acknowledge that the varied risks and compounding effects of extreme weather impacts are not homogenous across regions and populations. Of course, natural environments—plains, rivers, and wetlands—often experience intense damage from extreme weather events. But the built environment, which includes water and transportation systems, faces similar scales of destruction. For this reason, both worlds are inextricably linked and should not be viewed as separate entities.

The damage that extreme weather can inflict upon communities should be enough to spur action. In 2019, for example, flooding in the Midwest destroyed at least 2,000 homes in Nebraska alone,⁴⁵ with damage to homes and businesses estimated to be at least $85 million.⁴⁶ The 155 mph winds of Hurricane Michael wreaked havoc in the Florida Panhandle and charged north through its neighboring states—Georgia, the Carolinas, and even Virginia. Mexico Beach, Florida, was one of the hardest-hit areas; the seaside city of about 1,200 people lost 80 percent of its homes.⁴⁷ Overall, NOAA estimates that Hurricane Michael caused more than $25 billion in damages, leading to significant economic losses in the affected areas.⁴⁸ Similarly, the wildfires of Paradise, California, destroyed roughly 15,000 homes, cost $8 billion, and resulted in 50,000 people being displaced from their community.⁴⁹

Low-income communities and people experiencing homelessness are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events

Not only does extreme weather drive up homelessness by damaging and destroying housing stock; it also has devastating effects on people who are already experiencing homelessness—particularly for the nearly 200,000 unsheltered people nationwide.⁵⁰ This population could not heed officials’ warnings to retreat indoors from the life-threatening cold of the Midwestern polar vortex or to stay inside while the California wildfires filled the air with asthma-inducing smoke and ash;⁵¹ nor could they retreat to their roofs to escape the unprecedented floods of Hurricane Harvey.⁵² They are among those most likely to develop a variety of mental illnesses—including anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder—as a result of weather-related disasters.⁵³ With climate change expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events,⁵⁴ people experiencing homelessness will likely suffer worsening physical and mental health outcomes and increasingly die from heat waves, floods, and disaster-induced outbreaks of illness such as West Nile virus.⁵⁵

Despite the urgent need to preserve and increase the number of affordable rental homes for low-income households, the stock of this precious resource is steadily dwindling. Analysis from the Hudson Institute shows that about 60 percent—or 8.7 million—of the 15 million low-cost rental units that existed in 1985 were no longer affordable by 2013.⁵⁶ Nearly half of these units—4.1 million—were lost permanently from the rental market. The inadequate supply of affordable rental homes is also driven in part by a lack of resilient design principles and by the fact that they are often built in isolated and underresourced neighborhoods with shoddy infrastructure and in poor environmental conditions, leaving these structures and their tenants more vulnerable to extreme weather events.⁵⁷ When these homes are damaged by natural disasters, they are more likely to be demolished than rebuilt.⁵⁸

A 2013 Center for American Progress report, “A Disaster in the Making: Addressing the Vulnerability of Low-Income Communities to Extreme Weather,” discusses how many U.S. disaster recovery and resilience policies fail to address the ongoing vulnerabilities experienced by low-income households.⁵⁹ When extreme weather hits, families facing these conditions can be driven deeper into economic distress. Analysis shows that housing assistance after extreme weather events often favors middle-class households, particularly homeowners.⁶⁰ Superstorm Sandy illustrated this trend: While much of New York City was able to regain a sense of normalcy following the storm, many low-income elderly and disabled residents in public housing buildings were stranded in their apartments for weeks.⁶¹ It is critical for disaster recovery planning to go hand in hand with fair housing planning so that it considers the disproportionate impact of racism on low-income affordable housing residents and frontline communities that have been historically relegated to environmentally hazardous areas.

Furthermore, the increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events will expose many places to multiple climate-related impacts at the same time, prolonging recovery times and making it more difficult for communities with fewer resources to rebuild.⁶² Two extreme weather events from 2018, the California wildfires and Hurricane Florence, serve as examples of such outcomes. While Paradise, California, fought the state’s most devastating wildfire in history, heavy rain triggered warnings for flash floods, rockslides, and debris flows in areas near the fire—thus compounding the danger.⁶³ Similarly, the Carolinas endured extreme flooding more than two weeks after Hurricane Florence made landfall.⁶⁴ Large portions of southeastern North Carolina saw rainfall exceeding two feet, totals typically seen near the Gulf Coast.⁶⁵ Every year, communities across the United States are experiencing trauma due to extreme weather. More must be done to safeguard these communities.

As Hurricane Maria illustrated, extreme weather can easily cut off access to basic needs, including housing, running water, electricity, and food systems—effects that are felt more strongly in frontline communities with poor infrastructure.⁶⁶ Hurricane Maria, a powerful Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds, ravaged Puerto Rico and sent shockwaves through the island, cutting its residents off from the rest of the world and damaging more than just the available housing stock. The storm knocked out 80 percent of the island’s power lines, affecting daily necessities such as clean water, food storage, transportation infrastructure, telecommunications, personal electric medical equipment, and a host of other needs.⁶⁷ Experts estimate that nearly 3,000 Puerto Ricans lost their lives in the four months following Hurricane Maria due to conditions on the island.⁶⁸ Without housing that is stable, fair, and affordable, the risks of climate displacement and homelessness increase.⁶⁹ Hurricane Maria is a painful reminder of how extreme weather can spark both humanitarian and housing crises.⁷⁰

Furthermore, recent studies show that damage from extreme weather events has intense effects on housing stock. The costs associated with rebuilding housing have many economic implications on the market and ultimately affect the decisions on where and how much affordable housing can be replenished. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the long-term effects of “severe disasters”—which it defines as causing 25 or more deaths—include an influx of lower-income residents since the severe damage causes housing to become more affordable, bringing more low-income residents into areas that may have previously been middle or higher class.⁷¹ This sustains the disproportionate risks that low-income residents face, including poor health conditions, environmental hazards, and insufficient disaster preparedness and response.

Federal disaster assistance efforts must be better targeted to frontline communities

The Fourth National Climate Assessment notes that current U.S. infrastructure and building design standards do not take future climate trends into account.⁷² However, recent findings on the wildfires that ravaged Paradise, California, provide some hope. A landmark 2008 building code requiring fire-resistant roofs, siding, and other safeguards appears to have protected 51 percent of the 350 single-family homes in the path of the Camp Fire, leaving them essentially undamaged. By contrast, only 18 percent of the 12,100 homes built prior to 2008 escaped wildfire damage.⁷³ Equitable and resilient housing development and mitigation strategies present the greatest opportunities for combating the housing crisis in the face of extreme weather. Local governments that want to build affordable, accessible housing should consider the interconnected sectors affected by extreme weather events, as seen after Hurricane Maria. Jurisdictions that fail to act will unfortunately pay a high price.⁷⁴ With 2019’s hurricane season well underway, federal, state, and local policymakers must acknowledge that forward-looking and equitable housing policies are essential to protect the supply of affordable housing and to safeguard public health, well-being, and prosperity in the face of expected extreme weather in a changing climate. Community development and housing initiatives that do not consider this approach will increase disaster rebui