全球智库信息集成服务系统

by Simone Hüser, Otmar Oehring

A comment by:

Prof. Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Prof. Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh is a university professor and political analyst. He is a leading columnist in various newspaper and media outlets.

With the Syrian crisis officially entering its fourth year, let it be asserted that the military solution to the ongoing war is no longer an option.

Historically since March 2011, Syria's unrestraint war can be divided into three major battles: The "Battle of Hums" (Baba Amru) in November 2011 which represented the risk of dividing Syria. The battle happened directly after China and Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution on Syria on October 4, 2011.

The second phase was the Damascus battle on July 18, 2012, which represented the risk of breaking down the Syrian army after the explosion of the regime's high-ranking officials administrating the crisis, better known as the "crisis cell". The third phase was the Aleppo battle which represented the emergence of a regional threat from Turkey's side.

The end of the military option led to a different style of war inside Syria. From a political perspective, the Syrian opposition has proved to be too weak: It has no power on the ground and the changed status of the regime due to its promotion of the conflict as an integral part of the global war on terrorism further weakens its position. Many factors can be viewed as positive elements helping the Syrian regime today:

1-The Saudi-Qatari conflict inside Syria which leads to a power shift, weakening in turn many of the Turkish- and Qatari-backed Salafist groups fighting in Syria.

2-The invention of Al Jama al Islamia that seems to be have close relations with Saudi Arabia to end up being labeled as "terrorist group" by the Gulf’s largest monarchy.

3-The changing position of Turkey that helped supporting the northern borders of Syria, besides the harsh war against terrorism from the Iraqi side that saved the area of Al Jazira .

4-The strategic intervention of Hezbollah (Qusair battle) that followed Mikhail Bogdanov's visit to Lebanon on April 28, 2013.

5-The expansion of terrorism in the region and the arrival of many foreign, also western, terrorists in Syria.

The current military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''e current military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''current military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''rrent military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''ent military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''t military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''military situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''litary situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''tary situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''ry situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa'' situation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''ituation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''uation, following the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. 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Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''llowing the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''owing the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''ing the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''g the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''the track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''e track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''track from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''ack from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''k from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''from Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''om Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa'' Qusair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''usair to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''air to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''r to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''to Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa'' Qalmoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''almoun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''moun then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''un then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa'' then Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''hen Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''n Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. Logically, the regime will not put an end to the problem, but will strategically push the coming battles towards the borders with neighboring countries, especially Jordan, as the southern part of Syria "Daraa''Yabroud, shows that on the ground, no strategic positions are left for the Syrian regime. 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