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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型工作论文
来源IDWorking Paper03-10
The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy
Kenneth N. Kuttner; Adam S. Posen
发表日期2003-12-01
出版年2003
语种英语
摘要

This paper examines two shortcomings--particularly relevant to Japan in the last decade--of applying simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments to assess the conduct of monetary policy. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. The second is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero.

The authors conclude that reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. Using long-term bond yields, they identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest-rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns.

主题Japan ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/difficulty-discerning-whats-too-tight-taylor-rules-and-japanese-monetary
来源智库Peterson Institute for International Economics (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/453966
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GB/T 7714
Kenneth N. Kuttner,Adam S. Posen. The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy. 2003.
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