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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 工作论文 |
来源ID | Working Paper03-10 |
The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy | |
Kenneth N. Kuttner; Adam S. Posen | |
发表日期 | 2003-12-01 |
出版年 | 2003 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper examines two shortcomings--particularly relevant to Japan in the last decade--of applying simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments to assess the conduct of monetary policy. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. The second is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero. The authors conclude that reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. Using long-term bond yields, they identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest-rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns. |
主题 | Japan ; Monetary Policy |
URL | https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/difficulty-discerning-whats-too-tight-taylor-rules-and-japanese-monetary |
来源智库 | Peterson Institute for International Economics (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/453966 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kenneth N. Kuttner,Adam S. Posen. The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy. 2003. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
03-10.pdf(263KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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