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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型工作论文
来源IDWorking Paper18-11
Implications of Lower Trend Productivity Growth for Tax Policy
Karen Dynan
发表日期2018-09-13
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要

This paper considers the implications of a sustained period of low productivity growth for the design of tax systems. While the specific changes needed will vary by country and depend on how other features of the economic environment change, several broad conclusions emerge. First, lower productivity growth will exacerbate future fiscal shortfalls associated with aging populations; even assuming that interest rates are also lower, tax systems may need to collect more revenue per dollar of GDP to support their older populations. Second, with lower productivity growth likely to result in lower wages, labor force participation rates may drop further, bolstering the case for more tax incentives for working. Third, the potentially flatter lifetime income profiles associated with lower productivity growth, along with the possibility that fiscal strains will lead to cuts in government retirement benefits, may warrant increasing tax incentives for retirement saving. Finally, the lower real interest rates that would likely accompany sustained low productivity growth may reduce the future efficacy of monetary policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool, suggesting that countries would be well-served by building more automatic stabilizers into their tax systems.

主题Labor ; Productivity ; Monetary Policy ; Taxes ; Fiscal Policy
URLhttps://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/implications-lower-trend-productivity-growth-tax-policy
来源智库Peterson Institute for International Economics (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/454173
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Karen Dynan. Implications of Lower Trend Productivity Growth for Tax Policy. 2018.
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