G2TT
来源类型Policy Brief
规范类型简报
来源IDPolicy Brief16-10
Reducing Government Debt Ratios in an Era of Low Growth
Paolo Mauro; Jan Zilinsky
发表日期2016-07-21
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要

Almost a decade after the onset of the global crisis, government debt-to-GDP ratios in the advanced economies have stabilized well above their precrisis levels. Living with high debt is living dangerously: When government debt is large, an increase in interest rates causes a sizable rise in the cost of debt service and therefore in the risk of financial crisis brought about by an interest rate–debt spiral. Reducing high debt ratios poses a daunting challenge, because the range of options for reducing debt is more limited than it once was and economic growth in the next decade is expected to be lower—as a result of population aging and the lingering effects of the crisis—than it was before the global crisis. Declines in the long-run economic growth rate drive increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratios and lead to fiscal crises, including defaults. Past studies have underestimated—in tone, if not necessarily in substance—the role of economic growth in determining the path of debt ratios. This Policy Brief proposes an extended accounting approach that fully recognizes the importance of economic growth in this regard, by keeping track of the impact of growth on the primary fiscal surplus. It concludes that a gradual but sustained fiscal adjustment through expenditure cuts and revenue increases is the most appropriate means of reducing the chances of debt crisis in the coming decade.

主题Fiscal Deficit ; Growth ; Government
URLhttps://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/reducing-government-debt-ratios-era-low-growth
来源智库Peterson Institute for International Economics (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/454877
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Paolo Mauro,Jan Zilinsky. Reducing Government Debt Ratios in an Era of Low Growth. 2016.
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