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As the United States and China prepare to resume talks later this month, hopes run high that there will soon be an end to the destructive trade war between the two nations. Given how difficult it's proving to achieve lasting reform of China's industrial and technology policies, it's unlikely a long-term resolution will be reached this month. Indeed, President Trump recently softened his stance and agreed to consider an interim deal, presumably one that revives US agricultural exports but falls short on fundamental Chinese reforms.

Trump badly needs a deal that removes him from the tightening noose in which he now finds himself. From here forward, further ratcheting up the trade war will bring visible pain to American households, with implications for his re-election chances next year.

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