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While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific—the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track—could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. This book investigates what these trade negotiations could mean to the world economy. Petri, Plummer, and Zhai estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. They find that the tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: the agreements would generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The authors conclude that the crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future.

View updated research reports, results, and data on the authors' website, Asia-Pacific Trade.

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Preface

Foreword

1. Introduction

2. How and Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Became a Priority

3. Analytical Approach

4. Economic Implications of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks

5. Dynamics of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks

6. National Economic Interests

7. Conclusion

Appendix A The Computable General Equilibrium Model

Appendix B Baseline Projections

Appendix C Scoring Provisions in Asia-Pacific Agreements

Appendix D Quantifying the Trade Effects of Agreements

Appendix E Quantifying the Investment Effects of Agreements

Appendix F Model Sensitivity

References

Abbreviations

Index