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Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates have declined in Asia, just as they have in the United States and Europe. Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia explores the relevance to several Asian economies of the diagnosis known as “secular stagnation.” Leading experts on the region discuss the fiscal and monetary policy challenges of reviving growth without generating domestic financial imbalances. The essays on innovation, demographics, spillovers, and various policy proposals are accompanied by case studies focusing on Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Indonesia.

Preface

1 Introduction: Toward a New Long-Term Growth Model for Asia
Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Thomas Helbling, Adam S. Posen, and Changyong Rhee

2 Secular Stagnation: History and Reality
Joel Mokyr

3 Is Asia at Risk of Growing Old before Becoming Rich?
Serkan Arslanalp, Jaewoo Lee, Minsuk Kim, Umang Rawat, Jacqueline Pia Rothfels, Jochen Markus Schmittmann, and Qianqian Zhang

4 Invention, Productivity, and the Evolution of East Asia's Innovation Systems
Lee Branstetter and Namho Kwon
Comment: Jong-Wha Lee

5 Secular Stagnation and Asia: International Transmission and Policy Spillovers
Olivier Jeanne

6 Getting Out of Secular Stagnation: Turning Japanese May Be a Good Thing Now
Adam S. Posen

7 Secular Stagnation and the Labor Market in Japan
Kyoji Fukao
Comment: Jonathan Woetzel

8 Declining Potential Growth in Korea
Dongchul Cho and Kyooho Kwon

9 A New Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Prudence and Higher-Quality Growth in China
Ma Jun

10 Do India's Exports Reflect the New Normal?
Prachi Mishra and Siddhartha Nath
Comment: Kenneth Kang

11 How Has Indonesia Fared in the Age of Secular Stagnation?
Mitali Das
Comment: Muhamad Chatib Basri

12 Twenty-Five Years of Global Imbalances
Maurice Obstfeld

13 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia
Joseph E. Gagnon and Philip Turner

14 Monetary Policy in the New Mediocre
Rania Al-Mashat, Kevin Clinton, Benjamin Hunt, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Hou Wang, and
Jiaxiong Yao

15 Avoiding a New Mediocre in Asia: What Can Fiscal Policy Do?
Ana Corbacho, Dirk Muir, Masahiro Nozaki, and Edda Zoli

16 Global Imbalances and the Trade Slowdown: Implications for Asia
Caroline Freund
Comment: Davin Chor

17 Toward a "New" Asian Model
Subir Gokarn

Index