全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Quantitative analysis of technology futures: a review of techniques, uses and characteristics.

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来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1093/scipol/scv059
ISBN	0302-3427
	Quantitative analysis of technology futures: a review of techniques, uses and characteristics.
	Ciarli, Tommaso; Coad, Alex; Rafols, Ismael
发表日期	2015-10-27
出处	Science and Public Policy
出版者	Oxford University Press
出版年	2015
页码	630-645
语种	英语
摘要	A variety of quantitative techniques have been used in the past in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA). In recent years, increased computational power and data availability have led to the emergence of new techniques that are potentially useful for foresight and forecasting. As a result, there are now many techniques that might be used in FTA exercises. This paper reviews and qualifies quantitative methods for FTA in order to help users to make choices among alternative techniques, including new techniques that have not yet been integrated into the FTA literature and practice. We first provide a working definition of FTA and discuss its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. Second, we select the most important quantitative FTA techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses, and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along key dimensions: descriptive/prescriptive, extrapolative/normative, data gathering/inference, and forecasting/foresight.
特色分类	T0173.2 Technological change
URL	http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/58687/
来源智库	Science Policy Research Unit (United Kingdom)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/468592
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ciarli, Tommaso,Coad, Alex,Rafols, Ismael. Quantitative analysis of technology futures: a review of techniques, uses and characteristics.. 2015.