| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.024 |
| ISBN | 0040-1625 |
| Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: an application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe. | |
| van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E.; Hof, Andries F; Carrara, Samuel; Geels, Frank; Nilsson, Måns; Rogge, Karoline; Turnheim, Bruno; van Vuuren, Detlef P | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-05-08 |
| 出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| 出版者 | Elsevier |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more ‘alternative’ strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links between the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling. |
| 特色分类 | GE170 Environmental policy$T0173.2 Technological change |
| 关键词 | interdisciplinary MLP Integrated assessment IAM Socio-technical transitions |
| URL | http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/76415/ |
| 来源智库 | Science Policy Research Unit (United Kingdom) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/469055 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E.,Hof, Andries F,Carrara, Samuel,et al. Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: an application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Sluisveld et al 2018（786KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
