全球智库信息集成服务系统

This project explores distributional consequences of Plan 2 of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security using dynamic microsimulation. This plan includes: voluntary personal account "carve outs," minimum benefits, widow(er)s benefit increases, and initial benefit formula shifts (from wage- to price-indexing). The analysis develops a baseline using Office of the Chief Actuary assumptions regarding portfolio allocation, rates of return, administrative costs, and annuitization. We compare results with promised benefits and current-law adjusted to match costs of the baseline without accounts. We test the estimates' sensitivity to assumptions using historical data, values from the literature, and models estimated from SCF data.