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Since the Great Recession, the budget deficit has fallen precipitously, but a serious long-run problem still exists as a burgeoning elderly population will push Social Security and health costs upward. Health costs do not seem as large a threat as in earlier projections because of a recent slowdown. However, the budget is now much more vulnerable to interest rate increases as the Great Recession and stimulus program doubled the debt-GDP ratio. Program reforms are desperately needed, but the bipartisan cooperation necessary for reform seems increasingly unlikely.

The National Association of Business Economists awarded this piece the Abramson Scroll "in recognition of an outstanding feature article published in Business Economics."