G2TT
来源类型Research Report
规范类型报告
The Reliability of Long-Term Budget Projections
Rudolph G. Penner
发表日期2016-11-30
出版年2016
语种英语
概述Long-term budget projections do not have to be right to be useful. Even when they are wrong, forecasts give valuable information about the long-term direction of key sectors of the budget, economy, and population. A variety of models now shows important demographic shifts—such as the aging of the US population—that will weigh heavily on the nation’s workforce and social welfare programs. Policymakers would do
摘要
Long-term budget projections do not have to be right to be useful. Even when they are wrong, forecasts give valuable information about the long-term direction of key sectors of the budget, economy, and population. A variety of models now shows important demographic shifts—such as the aging of the US population—that will weigh heavily on the nation’s workforce and social welfare programs. Policymakers would do well to consider these forecasts’ implications and, in the face of uncertainty, realize that unanticipated economic bad luck is perhaps as likely as good luck, and so plan conservatively.
This chapter appears in Fixing Fiscal Myopia: Why and How We Should Emphasize the Long Term in Federal Budgeting. The full volume is available from the Bipartisan Policy Center at http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/fixing-fiscal-myopia/.
主题Taxes and Budget
URLhttps://www.urban.org/research/publication/reliability-long-term-budget-projections
来源智库Urban Institute (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/479482
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GB/T 7714
Rudolph G. Penner. The Reliability of Long-Term Budget Projections. 2016.
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