| 来源类型 | Research paper
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Towards a Post-Crisis Global Economy: Long-Term Growth Scenarios and the Impact on Exit Strategies |
| Vanessa Rossi and Rodrigo Delgado Aguilera
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| 发表日期 | 2009-09-21
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| 出版年 | 2009
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 |
- One year on from the onset of the global crisis, as policymakers turn from firefighting to considering the next steps for recovery, a key question is whether there has been a severe but temporary setback to economic growth or a permanent adjustment in long-run projections. Could this crisis and the cost in terms of public finances haunt the world economy for many years to come?
- Many analysts would agree that, compared with pre-crisis assessments for the GDP outlook, this recession will cast a long shadow over prospects for the economies most involved, chiefly the US and Europe. But should this shadow extend over the 10-20-year view and beyond? The short-term shock is unlikely to change demographics, but arguably it will encourage more cautious reappraisals of the other determinant of long run growth, future productivity trends.
- Long-term GDP projections are indeed under review but proposed changes should not go unchallenged as they are highly debatable, politically sensitive and critical to the short- to medium-term outlook. Firstly, given the intrinsic difficulties in forecasting productivity (GDP/head), all projections are tenuous and reflect factors other than economic opinion, such as forecast credibility, business confidence and political leanings. Secondly, GDP projections will be critical in policy-setting, including planning the timing and scale of exit strategies such as the normalization of monetary and fiscal policy.
- Estimates for future GDP, public-sector deficits and debt are particularly important for the Euro area given that currently high government deficits are pushing up average debt to 70-80% of GDP, well above the debt target of 60%. Adjustments required to bring debt down will be even tougher if GDP growth is low.
- Given the important influence that long-run GDP assumptions have on policy and thus on the short-run economic outlook, they need to be scrutinized carefully. And policy decisions should take into account the highly uncertain nature of such estimates, adopting a flexible approach to target setting to allow for the possibility of further adjustments based on new information.
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| 主题 | Global Economy and Finance
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| URL | https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/109130
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| 来源智库 | Chatham House (United Kingdom)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/48558
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Vanessa Rossi and Rodrigo Delgado Aguilera. Towards a Post-Crisis Global Economy: Long-Term Growth Scenarios and the Impact on Exit Strategies. 2009.
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