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Objectives: To assess the conditions under which the measured risk of a workplace injury resulting in a disability changes.

Methods: Multivariate regression analysis and administrative claims data build an understanding of the factors that underlie the probability that a workplace injury results in a disability (disability probability).

Results: First, jointly examining injury incidence rates and disability probabilities challenges some conclusions suggested by examining the two separately. Second, some characteristics identified as risk factors for disability when studied in isolation are not risk factors. Third, risk factors are qualitatively consistent across groups of workers but quantitatively different.

Conclusions: Policymakers might draw incorrect conclusions about the risk of a workplace injury becoming a disability unless the research provides a joint assessment of incidence rates and disability probabilities and a comprehensive analysis of risk factors across worker groups.