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来源类型 | Chatham House Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
Artificial Intelligence and International Affairs: Disruption Anticipated | |
Dr Jacob Parakilas; Mary L. ‘Missy’ Cummings; Dr Heather Roff; Kenn Cukier; Hannah Bryce | |
发表日期 | 2018-06-14 |
出版年 | 2018 |
语种 | 英语 |
概述 | The rise of AI must be better managed in the near term in order to mitigate longer term risks and to ensure that AI does not reinforce existing inequalities. |
摘要 | SummaryThis report examines some of the challenges for policymakers that may arise from the advancement and increasing application of AI. It draws together strands of thinking about the impact that AI may have on selected areas of international affairs – from military, human security and economic perspectives – over the next 10–15 years. The report sets out a broad framework to define and distinguish between the types of roles that artificial intelligence might play in policymaking and international affairs: these roles are identified as analytical, predictive and operational. In analytical roles, AI systems might allow fewer humans to make higher-level decisions, or to automate repetitive tasks such as monitoring sensors set up to ensure treaty compliance. In these roles, AI may well change – and in some ways it has already changed – the structures through which human decision-makers understand the world. But the ultimate impact of those changes is likely to be attenuated rather than transformative. Predictive uses of AI could have more acute impacts, though likely on a longer timeframe. Such employments may change how policymakers and states understand the potential outcomes of specific courses of action. This could, if such systems become sufficiently accurate and trusted, create a power gap between those actors equipped with such systems and those without – with notably unpredictable results. Operational uses of AI are unlikely to fully materialize in the near term. The regulatory, ethical and technological hurdles to fully autonomous vehicles, weapons and other physical-world systems such as robotic personal assistants are very high – although rapid progress towards overcoming these barriers is being made. In the longer term, however, such systems could radically transform not only the way decisions are made but the manner in which they are carried out. Animation: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare
RecommendationsThe report makes the following recommendations for governments and international non-governmental organizations, which will have a particularly important role in developing and advocating for new ethical norms:
Towards the end of the process of compiling this report, public attention has increasingly turned to the possibility of AI being used to support disinformation campaigns or interfere in democratic processes. We intend to focus on this area in subsequent work. Further readingArtificial Intelligence in International Affairs: Six Things the World Can Do to Prepare |
主题 | Drones and Artificial Intelligence (AI) ; Future of Warfare ; Human Security ; Technology and Data |
区域 | International Security |
URL | https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/chatham-house-expert-perspectives-2018-risks-and-opportunities-international-affairs |
来源智库 | Chatham House (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/49681 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dr Jacob Parakilas,Mary L. ‘Missy’ Cummings,Dr Heather Roff,et al. Artificial Intelligence and International Affairs: Disruption Anticipated. 2018. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
2018-06-14-artificia(517KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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