| 来源类型 | Article and other Publication |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Brexit: everyone loses, but Britain loses the most | |
| Latorre, Maria C.; Zoryana Olekseyuk; Hidemichi Yonezawa; Sherman Robinson | |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines 12 economic simulation models that estimate the impact of Brexit (Britain’s exit from the European Union). Most of the studies find adverse effects for the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU-27. The UK’s GDP losses from a hard Brexit (reversion to World Trade Organization rules due to a lack of UK-EU agreement) range from –1.2 to –4.5 percent in most of the models analyzed. A soft Brexit (e.g., Norway arrangement, which seems in line with the nonbinding text of the political declaration of November 14, 2018, on the future EU-UK relationship) has about half the negative impact of a hard Brexit. Only two of the models derive gains for the UK after Brexit because they are based on unrealistic assumptions. The authors analyze more deeply a computable general equilibrium model that includes productivity and firm selection effects within manufacturing sectors and operations of foreign multinationals in services. Based on this latest model, they explain the likely economic impact of Brexit on a wide range of macroeconomic variables, namely GDP, wages, private consumption, capital remuneration, aggregate exports, aggregate imports, and the consumer price index. |
| URL | https://www.die-gdi.de/en/others-publications/article/brexit-everyone-loses-but-britain-loses-the-most/ |
| 来源智库 | German Development Institute (Germany) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/499581 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Latorre, Maria C.,Zoryana Olekseyuk,Hidemichi Yonezawa,et al. Brexit: everyone loses, but Britain loses the most. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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